Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq surge after Trump indicates flexibility on Hormuz, says war won’t last ‘much longer’

Consumer confidence ticked up in March, rising over the previous month and outperforming economists’ expectations, according to data released by the Conference Board on Tuesday.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence gauge rose to 91.8 from 91.2 the previous month, against expectations of 87.9. The reading on the present situation also rose month over month to 123.3 from 120, outperforming economist expectations of 118.

Bucking the trend, readings on consumer expectations, a forward-facing metric, fell to 70.9 in March from 72 the previous month. Though the gauge still outperformed expectations of 68.4.

The readings are a positive sign for consumer sentiment, which tends to suffer during oil shocks that raise gas prices. On Tuesday morning, the national average for gasoline crossed over $4 per gallon, according to AAA data.

In a client note on Tuesday, Goldman Sachs strategists noted that consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, has fallen below levels seen during the 2001 tech bubble and during the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.

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February saw the lowest hiring rate since April 2020 in the depths of the pandemic, at 3.1%, according to Labor Department data released Tuesday. US hires for the month fell to 4.8 million, down 387,000 year over year.

Yahoo Finance’s Emma Ockerman reports:

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US stocks turned up at the opening bell on Tuesday after President Trump told administration officials that he was considering winding down military presence in Iran without resolving control over the Strait of Hormuz, per the Wall Street Journal

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ticked up by 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively. The tech-exposed Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose by a stronger 1.3%.

In a social media post Tuesday morning, the US president seemingly signaled his willingness to wind down aggressive military action, counteracting previous escalatory language on Monday.

“Iran has been, essentially, decimated,” Trump posted on Truth Social, addressing other countries. “The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”

Oil rose Tuesday morning despite the president’s comments. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) crude climbed above $103 per barrel as the US-Israeli war against Iran entered its fifth week, while the international benchmark crossed $117.

Investors will get the March consumer confidence reading and the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday, in what should be a read on US consumer health. In a bearish sign for consumer sentiment, US gas prices at the pump crossed $4 per gallon nationally early Tuesday morning, according to data from AAA. Diesel prices averaged $5.45 per gallon.

Home prices rose slightly to start the year, but the latest reading was taken before fallout from the Iran War began pushing mortgage rates higher.

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, which measures prices in the nation’s largest metro areas, rose 1.18% in January from a year earlier, and 0.16% from December.

The meager gains reflect the housing market’s low-supply, low-demand dynamics. First-time homebuyers continue to struggle with affordability, while many would-be sellers put off moving and hang on to their ultra-low mortgage rates.

The data reflects home sales that closed between late 2025 and early 2026, when mortgage rates were hovering near multiyear lows in the low 6% area, a worrying sign for future housing activity. Since then, mortgage rates have climbed rapidly over the last month and averaged around 6.55% on Monday, according to Mortgage News Daily.

Consumer goods giant Unilever will merge its food business with the spice maker McCormick in a deal valued at $44.8 billion, the companies confirmed on Tuesday — marking the latest tie-up in the consumer goods and food-and-beverage space.

Our Brian Sozzi reports:

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Gas prices crossed a national average of $4 per gallon early Tuesday morning as the war in Iran has continued to wrack the energy market, driving up oil prices around the globe.

The average price at the pump across the US hit $4.02 on Tuesday, its highest level since August 2022, according to AAA data, after climbing more than $1 over the past month from $2.98

This rise comes as the US-Iran war enters its fifth week and is the latest milestone to be reached by gas prices, which are now up about $1 on average from one month ago.

Underlying oil prices on international Brent crude (BZ=F) and US West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) have surged by roughly 50% each over the past month since the war began. Futures on the two energy products were trading around $107.80 per barrel and $102 per barrel, respectively.

On March 25, the Trump administration eased federal ethanol restrictions by issuing an emergency waiver for E15 gasoline, a move designed to increase the supply of a less expensive blend of fuel ahead of the warmer weather driving season. The White House also issued a temporary 60-day waiver on so-called “Jones Act” requirements that make domestic shipping more expensive.

Neither move, however, has managed to truly pull gas prices back across the country.

While consumers have had to shell out more money to fill up their vehicles over the past month, truckers have been paying even more. The national average for a gallon of diesel reached $5.45 on Tuesday.