Dow soars 1,000 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq surge in upbeat end to brutal quarter

Stocks soared on Tuesday over optimism that the Middle East war could end soon.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rallied almost 3% on Tuesday while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped 3.8%. The Dow (^DJI) gained 1,000 points, or more than 2% as signals from Iran’s leadership of willingness to negotiate propelled the market to session highs in afternoon trading.

Big tech led the gains, with AI chip heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA) jumping more than 5%. Software giant Microsoft (MSFT) rose more than 3% while social media company Meta (META) also rallied 6%.

Despite Tuesday’s bounce, the broader market’s S&P 500 and the Dow both saw their worst quarter since 2022.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC), Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), and Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) are at or near session highs — and all are on pace for their best day since May 2025.

But it’s happening on the last day of a brutal month and quarter, which makes this look more like a rebalancing than a trend change.

The S&P 500 is on track for its worst month in a year and its worst quarter since 2022, while the Dow (^DJI) is staring at its worst month since 2022 and snapping a 10-month winning streak.

The sector damage tells a similar story. Consumer staples (XLP), industrials (XLI), healthcare (XLV), materials (XLB), and real estate (XLRE) are all logging their worst month in years, while energy (XLE) remains the big outlier.

Today’s rally is real, but so is the hole March dug.

Big Tech stocks soared on Tuesday as oil tanked over optimism that the Middle East war would end soon.

AI chip heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA) jumped more than 5%. Software giant Microsoft (MSFT) and social media company Meta (META) also jumped 3% and 6%, respectively.

Tuesday’s move marked a sharp reversal from the past month, when growth stocks were pressured by “higher-for-longer” interest rate expectations driven by surging oil prices.

Yahoo Finance’s Jose Velasquez reports:

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Gold (GC=F) was on track for its worst month in more than a decade as the precious metal took an outsized hit since the start of the Middle East conflict.

Gold futures bounced nearly 3% to hover near $4,670 per ounce on Tuesday, though they were on track for their biggest monthly loss since 2013.

Some analysts believe the outsized moves in March may have marked a low point, with the metal having reached $4,100 last week.

“Bottoms are always a process, and I do believe we are in the middle of one,’ wrote Octavio Costa, founder & CEO of Azuria Capital, on Tuesday.

Oil prices plunged through afternoon trading on Tuesday after regional media reported that Iranian leadership had signaled that they may be open to negotiations to end the war — the first such move from the regime since the start of the conflict.

In comments first published by the state news agency IRNA and reported by regional media, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Monday that any end to the war that has consumed the Middle East must “guarantee the security and interests of the Iranian people,” according to Turkish media.

Bloomberg reported that Pezeshkian said, on a call with EU Council President António Costa on Monday, that Iran has “the necessary will to end this war” but expects certain guarantees in exchange.

Futures on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, fell by more than 3.1% to trade at $104 per barrel, while those on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) shed 2% to fall below $101 per barrel.

At the same time, US equities turned sharply north. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained roughly 2.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) picked up 2% on the session, or roughly 900 points. The tech-exposed Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) saw the strongest gain, returning 3.5%.

Surging energy costs driven by the war in Iran are leaving US households increasingly vulnerable to price pressures, analysts from Goldman Sachs and Moody’s said in reports released this week.

“Although US households’ finances are generally intact, spending growth remains modest and increasingly uneven, leaving consumption more exposed to renewed energy price pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict,” the Moody’s analysts wrote.

Recent retail sales data show modest growth in spending, with core retail sales increasing by 0.3% in January even as the headline figure ticked down by 0.2%, according to Goldman Sachs. That said, “spending headwinds from higher inflation due to the recent energy price surge are likely to weigh on spending growth for the rest of the year,” Goldman’s analysts wrote.

The bank is forecasting 2026 real PCE spending growth forecast at 1.3% on a fourth quarter-over-fourth quarter basis, compared to 2025’s growth of 2.1%.

Moody’s analysts also note that energy price hikes impact middle- and lower-income households disproportionately, which will “exacerbate consumption’s dependence on affluent households.” The analysts said that the dynamic may be problematic for spending growth, since affluent households’ confidence can “quickly erode” during equity market volatility, like the swings driven by the war in Iran.

“While household consumption remains the primary driver of US economic growth, the ongoing Middle East conflict and resulting surge in oil prices are testing its resilience,” the Moody’s analysts wrote.

Consumer sentiment data released Tuesday morning by the Conference Board surprised to the upside, though the report still showed that concerns of higher prices coming down the pike are weighing on American households.

Consumer confidence ticked up in March, rising over the previous month and outperforming economists’ expectations, according to data released by the Conference Board on Tuesday.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence gauge rose to 91.8 from 91.2 the previous month, against expectations of 87.9. The reading on the present situation also rose month over month to 123.3 from 120, outperforming economist expectations of 118.

Bucking the trend, readings on consumer expectations, a forward-facing metric, fell to 70.9 in March from 72 the previous month. Though the gauge still outperformed expectations of 68.4.

The readings are a positive sign for consumer sentiment, which tends to suffer during oil shocks that raise gas prices. On Tuesday morning, the national average for gasoline crossed over $4 per gallon, according to AAA data.

In a client note on Tuesday, Goldman Sachs strategists noted that consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, has fallen below levels seen during the 2001 tech bubble and during the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.

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February saw the lowest hiring rate since April 2020 in the depths of the pandemic, at 3.1%, according to Labor Department data released Tuesday. US hires for the month fell to 4.8 million, down 387,000 year over year.

Yahoo Finance’s Emma Ockerman reports:

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US stocks turned up at the opening bell on Tuesday after President Trump told administration officials that he was considering winding down military presence in Iran without resolving control over the Strait of Hormuz, per the Wall Street Journal

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ticked up by 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively. The tech-exposed Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose by a stronger 1.3%.

In a social media post Tuesday morning, the US president seemingly signaled his willingness to wind down aggressive military action, counteracting previous escalatory language on Monday.

“Iran has been, essentially, decimated,” Trump posted on Truth Social, addressing other countries. “The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”

Oil rose Tuesday morning despite the president’s comments. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) crude climbed above $103 per barrel as the US-Israeli war against Iran entered its fifth week, while the international benchmark crossed $117.

Investors will get the March consumer confidence reading and the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday, in what should be a read on US consumer health. In a bearish sign for consumer sentiment, US gas prices at the pump crossed $4 per gallon nationally early Tuesday morning, according to data from AAA. Diesel prices averaged $5.45 per gallon.

Home prices rose slightly to start the year, but the latest reading was taken before fallout from the Iran War began pushing mortgage rates higher.

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, which measures prices in the nation’s largest metro areas, rose 1.18% in January from a year earlier, and 0.16% from December.

The meager gains reflect the housing market’s low-supply, low-demand dynamics. First-time homebuyers continue to struggle with affordability, while many would-be sellers put off moving and hang on to their ultra-low mortgage rates.

The data reflects home sales that closed between late 2025 and early 2026, when mortgage rates were hovering near multiyear lows in the low 6% area, a worrying sign for future housing activity. Since then, mortgage rates have climbed rapidly over the last month and averaged around 6.55% on Monday, according to Mortgage News Daily.

Consumer goods giant Unilever will merge its food business with the spice maker McCormick in a deal valued at $44.8 billion, the companies confirmed on Tuesday — marking the latest tie-up in the consumer goods and food-and-beverage space.

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Gas prices crossed a national average of $4 per gallon early Tuesday morning as the war in Iran has continued to wrack the energy market, driving up oil prices around the globe.

The average price at the pump across the US hit $4.02 on Tuesday, its highest level since August 2022, according to AAA data, after climbing more than $1 over the past month from $2.98

This rise comes as the US-Iran war enters its fifth week and is the latest milestone to be reached by gas prices, which are now up about $1 on average from one month ago.

Underlying oil prices on international Brent crude (BZ=F) and US West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) have surged by roughly 50% each over the past month since the war began. Futures on the two energy products were trading around $107.80 per barrel and $102 per barrel, respectively.

On March 25, the Trump administration eased federal ethanol restrictions by issuing an emergency waiver for E15 gasoline, a move designed to increase the supply of a less expensive blend of fuel ahead of the warmer weather driving season. The White House also issued a temporary 60-day waiver on so-called “Jones Act” requirements that make domestic shipping more expensive.

Neither move, however, has managed to truly pull gas prices back across the country.

While consumers have had to shell out more money to fill up their vehicles over the past month, truckers have been paying even more. The national average for a gallon of diesel reached $5.45 on Tuesday.