The Labor Department is set to release the March jobs report Friday morning, providing a fuller picture of the state of the job market just as the US-Israel war on Iran began to weigh on the global economy.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a gain of 65,000 jobs, reversing February’s surprise drop of 95,000 positions amid a massive strike of healthcare workers. That monthly gain would also be in line with last March and likely sufficient for “breakeven employment” growth, or the number of jobs needed to maintain a steady unemployment rate as immigration plummets.
Indeed, the unemployment rate, which rose to 4.4% in February, is seen holding steady.
Anxiety is swirling about AI-related job displacement, a remarkably weak hiring rate, and any added uncertainty the war might bring to already jittery employers. So far, though, data shows the labor market is chugging along as it has been for months — not exactly reassuring to those looking for work, but also nothing catastrophic.
Applications for jobless benefits continue to remain relatively low: Initial claims dropped by 9,000 for the week ending March 28, totaling 202,000. Overall layoff levels also remain muted, despite big-name companies like Amazon (AMZN) announcing cuts this year.
The war adds another complication, but it may still be too early to tell how much it’ll weigh on a fragile labor market. March’s report is unlikely to show much of a hit.
“The US/Israel war with Iran is making the labor market more vulnerable, but any impact will take some time to materialize,” Oxford Economics lead economist Nancy Vanden Houten said in a statement Thursday. “That’s confirmed by the latest job claims figures, which are consistent with stable labor market conditions.”
Emma Ockerman is a reporter covering the economy and labor for Yahoo Finance. You can reach her at emma.ockerman@yahooinc.com.
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