In 2016, the Milwaukee Bucks selected Thon Maker with the 10th pick in the NBA Draft. That was the last time the Bucks had a selection in the NBA Draft lottery. Until this summer.
As of Friday morning, the Bucks have a 30-46 record, and the current Tankathon rankings have them 10th in this year’s draft lottery odds. That isn’t necessarily the most important thing heading into this year’s draft, because Milwaukee’s pick is tied up in a swap with the Atlanta Hawks. But it won’t be about where Atlanta’s pick ends up, either, because the Hawks own the rights to the New Orleans Pelicans’ selection.
Rather than get bogged down in the full mechanics of it, Bucks fans can keep it simple: One, Milwaukee will have whichever pick is worse between theirs and the Pelicans’ selections; and two, there is no scenario in which the Bucks end up with the No. 1 pick.
With the Bucks and the Pelicans eliminated from playoff contention, Milwaukee is guaranteed to have a lottery pick. It remains to be seen if that pick will be closer to the top or bottom of the lottery.
The Bucks will need to consider prospects around the world. But the men’s NCAA Tournament Final Four this weekend provides an easy way to start getting familiar with some of the top prospects for this year’s draft.
I am not an NBA Draft expert. The Athletic has Sam Vecenie for that, so read all of his incredible work on this year’s draft. But I can at least help point Bucks fans in the right direction by picking one player on each Final Four team to “scout” while enjoying Saturday’s games.
Connecticut vs. Illinois — 5:09 p.m. CT
Illinois: Keaton Wagler
The consensus around this draft is that there are four players at the top: Duke’s Cameron Boozer, BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, Kansas’ Darryn Peterson and North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson. After those four, there appears to be a talented group of guards who take up the remainder of the top 10, including Wagler.
If you’ve followed this college basketball season, you are probably well aware of Wagler’s story. He was a scrawny, 18-year-old from the suburbs of Kansas City who went to Illinois, ranked 261st by one recruiting service. He took over the Big Ten, becoming one of the best players in the country as the Illini’s starting point guard.
Wagler averaged 17.9 points, five rebounds and 4.3 assists in 33.8 minutes per game in 36 starts for Illinois. He made 44.5 percent of his shots overall and 40.7 percent from 3 on 5.8 attempts per game.
At 6-foot-6, Wagler has plus size for a point guard, but he still needs to add weight and strength to play against NBA competition. He has shown off an impressive blend of scoring and playmaking in his freshman season that has excited plenty of talent evaluators, but questions remain about his athleticism, strength and defense at the next level.
Connecticut: Braylon Mullins
You’ve seen Mullins’ shot that sent UConn to the Final Four. And Bill Raftery’s reaction. And Dan Hurley’s reaction.
Mullins was probably UConn’s closest prospect to the lottery heading into the tournament, but it’s not entirely clear that he will enter the draft this summer. So the Huskies are definitely the team in the Final Four with a prospect furthest from where the Bucks will pick.
The 6-foot-6 freshman put up great shooting numbers in high school and still carries that pedigree and potential in the eyes of most talent evaluators. But he has hit just 32.8 percent from 3 on 6.4 attempts per game. Obviously, Mullins showed off some of that ability with the deep 3 against Duke, and his willingness to take and make a big shot after missing his first four 3-point attempts in that game shows he is a high-level competitor with strong mental toughness. Still, any team taking a chance on Mullins would be projecting what they hope he can be at the next level.
(Note: It’s unclear what position Alex Karaban might play in the NBA, and he might not be an elite athlete. But I could see him ending up late in the first round as a team convinces itself that it wants a winner who can play multiple positions and knock down 3s.)
Arizona vs. Michigan — 7:49 p.m. CT
Arizona: Brayden Burries
While it was difficult to find a prospect from Connecticut who might end up in the lottery, Arizona has two in Burries and Koa Peat. For this exercise, we’ll stick with Burries.
The 6-foot-4 freshman guard was Arizona’s leading scorer this season, averaging 16.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.5 steals in 29.6 minutes per game. He is listed at 205 pounds and possesses enough strength to power through opposing guards in college and get to the rim. He’s proven to be a good 3-point shooter, knocking down 40.2 percent on 4.4 3-point attempts per game.
Unlike Wagler, who looks like more of a true on-ball creator who needs the ball in his hands, Burries might end up as more of an off-ball guard on offense who makes an impact offensively but does more of the little things to excel as a defender and rebounder.
Michigan: Yaxel Lendeborg
If the Bucks end up closer to the end of the lottery, Lendeborg could end up being a realistic option.
The 6-foot-9 forward has been on an impressive run, putting up 23 or more points in each of the last three games. Michigan has been one of the most physically dominant teams in the NCAA Tournament, and Lendeborg’s performance at the four has been a big part of that.
While Lendeborg can dominate with his size (and 7-foot-4 wingspan), his skills really stand out at the college level. Lendeborg doesn’t just catch lobs or get fed easy looks by his guards; he can create for himself and others. After playing two seasons at UAB, Lendeborg averaged 15.2 points, 7 rebounds and 3.3 assists in 30.4 minutes per game in his lone season at Michigan and also knocked down 37.2 percent of his 4.5 3-point attempts per game.
Lendeborg will turn 24 in September, which is why he will probably go at the end of the lottery or outside of it.