Everything old is officially new again after mathematicians determined that trends tend to resurface “every 20 years or so.” So, while a de-cluttering organizer might tell you to pitch those low-rise skinny jeans, these researchers might say, not so fast!
The team of mathematicians, led by Emma Zajdela at Northwestern University, took a look at well over 150 years of women’s clothing styles and determined that they could calculate trends resurfacing about every 20 years, calling it, “the 20-year rule.”
20-year rule
In an article for Popular Science, Andrew Paul writes, “Clothing trends come and go, but in some cases, they don’t stay away for too long. For decades, both the fashion industry and its devotees have referenced the so-called “20-year rule,” which suggests society is liable to see certain styles return at semi-regular intervals. However, without any hard data to back up the claim, that “rule” has long remained more of a hypothesis.”
This is where the research comes in. Zajdela shares, “To our knowledge, this is the first time that someone developed such an extensive and precise database of fashion measures across more than a century.”
The research
Here’s how they did it. The Northwestern research team took a look at runway collections dating all the way back to 1869 and combined those trends with information from the commercial pattern archive. Explained on their site, “The Commercial Pattern Archive (CoPA) at the University of Rhode Island is both an extensive collection of commercially produced paper sewing patterns and a unique scholarly database used by costumers, fashion designers, museum professionals, scholars, and vintage aficionados the world over.”
What they then were able to do is measure waistlines, pant legs, skirt length, etc., to determine the formula. Paul writes that the study found the pendulum is always swinging. “Basically, the fashion industry is constantly fluctuating between originality and tradition. Once a clothing style is too popular, designers begin changing their new apparel just enough to stand out while still remaining desirable to potential wearers.”
Fashion is evolving
Plenty of Redditors have weighed in on the topic. On a thread entitled “Fashion stopped evolving 20 years ago…what do you think?”
A commenter proves that perhaps we’re about to shift trends. “Yes and no. 20 years ago was the last signature defining aspects of fashion that characterized it, but otherwise no. Fashion is still evolving as normal, we just haven’t hit a point where we get a shift that makes past fashion seem alien, and we shouldn’t expect it to happen anytime soon. No one walks around in a Victorian wardrobe today, and Victorians wouldn’t walk in ours. People keep craving a shift that makes the fashion landscape itself change, which simply isn’t going to happen.”
This person shares, in part, that indeed everything comes back in style. “There’s been actual change though, with tons of ebb and flow. The 90’s / early 00’s was really influenced by the 60’s & 70’s as well. 2010’s felt very 80’s with their own twist. I feel like we’re in the 60’s again (as in what people actually wore in the 60’s, not the media), with clean girl, beige, minimalism, whatever. But if you follow trends, you’ll see there’s been a lot of pushback against that now, especially since fashion is political. Give it a few years and we’ll be in the 70’s / 80’s. That whole (The) Devil Wears Prada speech about fashion trickling down is true.”
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