The European Union is entering the vortex of an energy shock, with Brussels now examining “all possibilities,” even measures that were previously considered extreme, such as the imposition of fuel rationing. However, Greece is not at risk for the time being, thanks mainly to the diversity of its energy supply sources.
The worsening situation in the Middle East, attacks on energy infrastructure and the almost complete disruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz are triggering intense turbulence in international markets, reinforcing fears of shortages, as well as maintaining prices at high levels.
In any case, Brussels and national governments are attempting to avoid piecemeal moves that could further disrupt the market. At the same time, generalized tax cuts on fuel are discouraged, because they boost demand and worsen the crisis.
However, the biggest challenge facing the EU in this crisis is the security of gas supply. In unprecedented conditions of geopolitical instability, Europe will have to replenish its natural gas reserves for the new winter season, which are at unusually low levels. They have fallen to 28.1% of total capacity, or around 321-325 terawatt-hours, the lowest in the last 15 years.
Natural gas sufficiency will also determine Europe’s electricity sufficiency, with countries in which imported fuel contributes a larger percentage to the electricity generation mix being most affected.
Although Greece belongs to this category of countries, developments in the Middle East do not disrupt its supply through the TurkStream and TAP pipelines, with any impact being essentially limited to prices.
Correspondingly, in the fuel sector, the country’s refineries, in addition to the 90-day reserves, have already replaced crude supplies from Persian Gulf countries for April and continue to seek cargo from alternative sources of supply for May. Motor Oil even procured its first cargo of West Texas International crude from the US last week.