Griffin Wong shares his three favorite player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday night’s five-game NBA slate, including props for Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Duren, and Donovan Clingan.
For the final time this regular season, NBA teams will take the court on a Monday. With the SoFi Play-In Tournament beginning next Tuesday, each team will play its final game of the regular season next Sunday.
There are just five games tonight, but two of them could conceivably be first-round previews; the New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks could easily face off in the 3-6 or 4-5 matchups and Detroit Pistons-Orlando Magic could be the 1-8 matchup. Plus, while the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers probably won’t face off early in the playoffs, they could meet in the second round if Portland — likely to be the eighth seed — can pull off an upset against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
For tonight’s slate, I’m choosing the three possible playoff previews for my favorite prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Top NBA prop bet picks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 4+ Three-Pointers Made (+139)
Since they elevated CJ McCollum to the starting lineup on February 22, the Hawks have been one of the best teams in basketball, going 18-2, and while McCollum has been a major part of that, arguably the biggest driver of success has been the star-level play of Alexander-Walker, who will likely be a Most Improved Player finalist. In that span, the Canadian has averaged 22.5 points per game, going 67-for-145 (46.2%) from beyond the arc. He’s hit at least four triples in nine of his 19 games, including three of his last four.
The Knicks have been a decent rim-protecting team this season, as Karl-Anthony Towns has been an above-average deterrent despite ranking in just the 32nd percentile in rim contest field goal percentage difference. This season, New York has allowed the fifth-fewest made field goals within five feet. But the flip side of that is that the Knicks allow plenty of open threes, conceding the sixth-most tries per game. Alexander-Walker has canned such shots at a 48.9% clip, and McCollum’s superior gravity vis-à-vis Zaccharie Risacher’s has allowed him to attempt even more uncontested looks as of late.
Jalen Duren 23+ Points (-114)
The Pistons have hardly missed a beat with Cade Cunningham sidelined, as they’ve gone 8-2, and their only losses have come against playoff teams in overtime. Duren, another Most Improved Player candidate, is a major reason: he’s appeared in nine of those 10 games, averaging 22.4 points and 10.6 rebounds per game and hitting the 23-point threshold five times. His buckets are sustainable, as he’s relied on the truest method of scoring: getting to the charity stripe. Since Cunningham’s injury, he’s averaged 8.2 free throw attempts per game.
He should have a good matchup against the Magic, who have struggled mightily in the last 11 games, going just 4-7. In that span, they’ve fallen apart defensively, giving up the ninth-most points per game. In particular, Orlando has allowed above-average accuracy within five feet across that span, and nearly all of Duren’s shots come in that range. Individually, Wendell Carter Jr. has had the worst rim-protecting season of his career, ranking in the sixth percentile in rim contests per 100 possessions. The Magic have also struggled with fouling; across the last 11 games, they’ve given up the second-most free throw attempts per game.
Donovan Clingan +1.5 Rebounds vs. Nikola Jokić (-117)
Two nights after Jokić’s epic battle against Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs, he’ll once again face off against one of the league’s best up-and-coming defensive big men. Clingan isn’t a two-way game-wrecker in the same way that Wembanyama is, but the Trail Blazers wouldn’t be 17-10 in their last 27 games without him. In that span, he’s averaged 12.3 rebounds per game (the third-most in the league, behind only Jokić and Wembanyama). He’s actually had more 15-rebound games this season (21) than Jokić has (20).
Clingan should have the easier rebound chances tonight, as since the All-Star break, Portland has limited opponents to the third-lowest percentage in the restricted area, while opponents have shot the fourth-highest against Denver. Over the last two months, Jokić has averaged 1.6 more rebounds per game than Clingan, but that margin should narrow tonight with Clingan having one of his easiest possible matchups and Jokić one of his hardest. Plus, if a greater proportion of rebound chances occur with the Nuggets on offense, that should benefit Clingan; among players with at least 60 games played who average at least 24 minutes per game, he ranks more highly in defensive rebounding percentage (fourth) than Jokić does on the offensive glass (ninth).