Wolves are going down. But they will still have a significant say in who joins them in the Championship

For Wolverhampton Wanderers, the die is cast.

Barring the greatest feat of escapology in the history of the Premier League, they will be relegated back to the Championship in the coming weeks. That much has been grimly apparent for most of their 2025-26 season.

But what is becoming increasingly clear is that, in the six weeks left of their eight-year stay in the top division, they can also have as big a say as anyone over who joins them in taking the drop down to the second tier.

Wolves have seven games remaining of a dismal campaign, fixtures including meetings with four of the five sides immediately above them in the table; the teams scrapping to be outside the bottom three when the full-time whistles blow on the final round of fixtures come May 23.

And now, too late to save their own season but just in time to help wreck it for others, head coach Rob Edwards’ side are a competitive outfit, capable of causing damage to anyone they face.

That was not the case in the first half of the campaign. Back then, a game against Wolves, both under Vitor Pereira and in the early weeks of replacement Edwards’ tenure across November and December, was as close as the Premier League ever brings to a guaranteed win.

As they prepare to face the other clubs in peril, starting away to third-bottom West Ham United this evening (Friday), that is no longer true.

The consequences of Edwards’ work began to filter through into results around six weeks after his appointment on November 12, and in a table based only on results since Christmas, Wolves are 15th with 15 points from 14 games — still not the record of a strong Premier League team, but at least that of a competent one.

Furthermore, in the short period between the Premier League pausing briefly for the fourth round of the FA Cup in February and the competition resuming at the London Stadium tonight following the March international window and the FA Cup’s quarter-finals, Wolves are in the top six of the form table.

The reason for the upturn has been a steady, painstaking improvement in underlying performance, mainly out of possession.

In the 17 league games they played before Christmas, Wolves conceded an average of 2.2 goals, compared to 1.2 in the 14 top-flight outings since Santa Claus came to town. Data provider Opta recorded eight ‘errors leading to goals’ from Wolves in those first 17 matches, and just three in the subsequent 14.

And they have become less intent on pressing, with their figures for ‘passes per defensive action’ rising from 11.4 before Christmas to 16.1 since.

That metric measures the number of passes an opposing side are allowed between attempted tackles, fouls or pressure, so Wolves have dropped deeper and focused more on organisation behind the ball and less on winning it high up the field. Put it all together and Wolves are better organised and more concentrated in defence.

Put colloquially, they are a tougher nut to crack these days.

In attack, their expected goals figure per 90 minutes has remained constant at 0.9 both before Christmas and since, but their actual goal output has risen from 0.5 to 1.1. So they are creating the same quality of chances according to the data, but are having more shots (9.9 per 90 since Christmas, to 8.7 before) and more on target (3.9 to 2.8). In simple terms, their chance creation has remained similar but they are making more out of the opportunities they get.

These aspects combined have led to a general narrowing of the gap between expected goals for and expected goals against in recent months.

And that makes the task harder for the fellow strugglers they are about to face — meaning Wolves could still have a major say in the shape of the bottom end of the final table, even if it still feels inevitable they will be one of the three relegated sides when the dust settles.

“It might prove to be that way,” said Edwards in his press conference ahead of Friday’s game. “It’s not something that I’m thinking about or wondering if we could decide things. I’m just trying to think about us and getting as many points as possible. Along the way, if we’re able to get some points, it’s inevitable it is going to affect others but it’s not something that’s in my thinking.

“I’m just literally, purely thinking about us. It’s so, so important that we take really good momentum and continue to try to improve. Something that I’ve said consistently is that we will fight and give our best and try to win every game all the way to the end of that 38th game.”

After West Ham comes a trip to Leeds United next Saturday, followed by a home game against Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday, April 25. All three sides would have been confident of seeing off Wolves when playing them earlier in the season, but will enter these upcoming games with more trepidation.

Then, on that final day of the league season in late May, Wolves travel to Burnley for a match between the clubs currently occupying the bottom two places in the table.

It will take something special from one or both of Burnley and Wolves for them not to still be 19th and 20th (in whatever order) when that meeting kicks off but if second-bottom is up for grabs when it does, that one match could be worth north of £3million ($4m) in table-related prize money to whoever can win it.

Each place in the final 2024-25 Premier League standings was worth an additional £2.7million in prize money compared to the one below it. While the current campaign’s exact figures have not been published yet, that figure is certain to rise thanks to the more-lucrative overseas broadcast deal which kicked in over the subsequent summer.

That sum might be relatively small in Premier League terms, but £3million would pay the wages of a top-level Championship player for a year or more — so both clubs will be anxious to not finish bottom of the table.

If individual players are less interested in swelling the club’s coffers, Edwards has maintained a regular phrase when speaking about providing motivation. “Play to stay, play to get away,” the head coach has said repeatedly, reminding his squad that their own careers remain on the line, either in terms of being retained by Wolves or earning a transfer that might keep them in the Premier League, for example.

So Wolves have become a better team in recent months and, so far at least, managed to keep motivation high despite their surely-done-for position.

And, while it has almost certainly come too late to save their top-flight status for 2026-27, it might still have come just in time to help take someone else with them.