Dan Hurley put it best.
“Unless it absolutely makes total sense for you to go in the draft — unless you know you’re going to be a lottery pick, or guaranteed to go top 15, top 18 — the biggest mistake that you can make right now as a college basketball player is going to the draft too early,” UConn’s head coach said last week on “The Dan Patrick Show.” “Obviously, because of the money situation.”
And he’s right.
With multiple college players set to make over $3 million next season, according to industry chatter, fringe first-round NBA picks have never had more incentive to return to school. For all the hand-wringing that name, image and likeness and the transfer portal would ruin college basketball, the opposite has happened:
Elite talent is staying in school longer and developing more than in generations past.
Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg and Alabama’s Labaron Philon Jr. are prime examples from last offseason. Both could have been first-round picks had they declared last spring … but instead, they returned to school, unquestionably improved their stock — all while making a pretty penny for their efforts. Those success stories, coupled with larger-than-ever college paydays, mean more fringe first-rounders will seriously consider staying in school.
So, which players have the toughest decisions to make? These seven, all of whom would have a pivotal impact in college next season if they push off the NBA Draft. Players are listed in alphabetical order, and their mock draft rankings come from Sam Vecenie, The Athletic’s NBA Draft expert:
Morez Johnson Jr., F, Michigan
2025-26 stats: 13.1 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.1 blocks per game
The Athletic mock draft selection: 22
With Johnson’s motor, it’s hard to envision him not having a wildly successful pro career. And when you combine that relentless effort with his 6-foot-9, 255-pound frame? Well, you got one of the most efficient and dominant bigs in all of college basketball. Per KenPom, Johnson was top-35 nationally in effective field goal percentage this season, making 65.8 percent of his 2s. He’s an offensive rebounding machine — nine combined against Arizona and UConn in the Final Four — but also a smart cutter and roll man.
Defensively, Johnson didn’t have to be a primary shot-blocker playing alongside 7-foot-3 center Aday Mara, but he’s still incredibly sound as a post defender and has the versatility to switch out onto the perimeter, too. Michigan already landed former Tennessee big J.P. Estrella, which suggests Johnson is likely to at least test the waters — but if anyone could figure out how to play multiple bigs together, it’s Dusty May.
The presence of 7-foot-2 Motiejus Krivas led opponents to shy away from some shots they might have taken against other players. (Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
Motiejus Krivas, C, Arizona
2025-26 stats: 10.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.9 blocks per game
The Athletic mock draft selection: 28
Because of the terrific teammates he played next to — namely Brayden Burries, Jaden Bradley and Koa Peat — the 7-foot-2 Krivas probably didn’t get the yearlong credit he deserved for Arizona’s Final Four run. But the Lithuanian big man was the centerpiece of a defense that ranked top-five nationally all season and was arguably the most important frontcourt player for Tommy Lloyd.
Per CBB Analytics, opponents made just 36.7 percent of their shots when Krivas was on the floor, 7.6 percentage points lower than when he sat. That’s because, in addition to his top-60 block rate nationally, Krivas’ sheer size disincentivized opponents from even attempting weak shots in the lane. Offensively, Krivas was a menace in the post and scored 2.8 second-chance points per game because of his offensive rebounding prowess. Alas, he doesn’t offer much floor-spacing potential and is fairly beholden to drop coverage defensively. Krivas would probably be best served returning to school, where he’d help set what should be a lucrative center market.
Aday Mara, C, Michigan
2025-26 stats: 12.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 2.6 blocks per game
The Athletic mock draft selection: 27
Mara is a true coin flip on this list: someone whose stock surged during Michigan’s run to the national title … but who genuinely enjoys being in college and would be extremely well compensated to come back. Frankly, while Mara is one of a number of centers listed here, he’s something of a one-of-one talent with his size, shot-blocking ability and passing acumen. Other bigs included here have similar profiles, but none quite max them out like Mara.
First, at 7-foot-3, Mara was truly one of the best shot blockers I can ever remember seeing in college basketball. He finished sixth in block rate, per KenPom, with 14 swats in Michigan’s six NCAA Tournament wins — but that doesn’t fully capture how much of a lid he single-handedly puts around the rim; he forced UConn center Tarris Reed Jr. into a 4-for-12 shooting night in the national title game, committing only one foul in 31 minutes. But he’s also a sensational passer, as evidenced by his 15 assists in the Wolverines’ first three postseason games. He throws outlets with the best of them, easily passes out of double-teams and sees angles that others can’t because of his size. He can help an NBA team tomorrow, but would he prefer to run it back and chase a second straight championship?
Braylon Mullins, W, UConn
2025-26 stats: 12 points, 3.5 rebounds per game, 33.5 3-point percentage
The Athletic mock draft selection: 18
It’s impossible not to view Hurley’s comments on “The Dan Patrick Show” through the lens of Mullins, a Class of 2025 top-25 recruit and potential lottery pick. At 6-foot-6, Mullins has great size for a future NBA shooting guard, with a lightning-quick release he showed off in UConn’s Final Four win over Illinois, in which he made 4 of 7 3s. Mullins also didn’t hurt his stock with the “Mullins Miracle,” a 37-footer with 0.4 seconds left in the Elite Eight that completed the Huskies’ 19-point comeback against Duke. He fits a clear NBA archetype as a high-IQ movement shooter, and there’s no question he’d go in the first round.
Mullins’ injury-riddled start to his freshman season, however, meant his overall percentages weren’t quite as sterling as you might expect for a slam-dunk lottery-pick shooter. He could also build out his skinnier frame to help him be more effective on defense and finishing through contact. If he returns, he’d be one of the featured weapons on a preseason top-five team … and have a chance to get back to the Final Four.
Patrick Ngongba II, C, Duke
2025-26 stats: 10.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.1 blocks per game
The Athletic mock draft selection: 20
Ngongba’s situation is a bit different from the others on this list because of the injury component. The 6-foot-11 big man suffered a stress fracture in his right foot late in the season, causing him to miss five games and play limited minutes once he returned in the NCAA Tournament.
Ngongba, unfortunately, has a history of injuries, too, missing most of his senior year of high school with a right foot injury and sustaining a left foot injury during the 2025 summer. There’s still a month until the NBA Draft Combine, but if Ngongba isn’t able to work out there — or be fully himself — it could very well influence his draft decision.
When healthy, though, Ngongba was one of the breakout sophomores in the sport this season, anchoring Duke’s top-five defense and serving as a high-post offensive initiator. Opponents scored 8.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when Ngongba was on the floor, per CBB Analytics, in large part because of his growth as a shot blocker. But Ngongba is arguably more intriguing on the offensive end, where Duke used him as a high-post passer to unlock its five-out offense. If he returns, he’d give Jon Scheyer a go-to interior scorer for next season … and if he doesn’t, it would force the Blue Devils to go hard after a top transfer, like Kansas’ Flory Bidunga.
Tyler Tanner, PG, Vanderbilt
2025-26 stats: 19.5 points, 5.1 assists, 3.6 rebounds, 2.4 steals per game, 36.8 3-point percentage
The Athletic mock draft selection: 29
Tanner, a former zero-star recruit, has evolved into one of the most electric two-way guards in college basketball, as capable of dominating games with his passing and scoring as with his handsy, pickpocket defense. With injuries to fellow backcourtmates Duke Miles and Frankie Collins, Tanner often had to carry the load for Vanderbilt this season, and did so admirably. He was the engine of the Commodores’ top-10 offense, and one of only four high-major players to average at least 19 points and five assists per game for the season.
Defensively, Tanner’s timing is excellent, as he finished top-35 nationally in steal percentage, per KenPom. However, Tanner’s physical size at just 6-feet and 170 pounds makes him small by NBA standards, which complicates the evaluation. He’d be a surefire first-rounder if he were 3 or 4 inches taller — but it may be best to return to school, where he’d be a likely preseason All-American.
Henri Veesaar, C, North Carolina
2025-26 stats: 17 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.2 blocks per game, 42.6 3-point percentage
The Athletic mock draft selection: 32
Like Mara and Ngongba, Veesaar is another shot blocker with serious passing chops — but the 7-foot Estonian is also a legitimate 3-point shooter, hitting over 40 percent from deep on three attempts per game. As a trailer in transition or pick-and-pop threat, it’s easy to see that aspect of Veesaar’s game translating to the next level, more so than any other big listed here.
But Veesaar is also a proficient interior scorer, making 67.7 percent of his 2s and ranking top-25 nationally in effective field goal percentage, per KenPom. He’s fairly well-rounded across the board, too, scoring off cuts, offensive rebounds and as a roll man. Now the question is, does he risk sneaking into the back end of the first round — or return as the centerpiece of new coach Michael Malone’s first UNC team? North Carolina will certainly make it worth his while to stay, as centers are expected to be the most sought-after position group on the market.