Within touching distance of the Europa League’s final four, Aston Villa will take a two-goal lead into Thursday’s second leg of their quarter-final against Bologna.
After winning 3-1 in Italy, the Birmingham club can book their semi-final place by finishing the job back at Villa Park.
Match preview
Kicking off their third European quarter-final in as many seasons, Aston Villa started slowly in last week’s first leg, but they survived a few scares before building a significant advantage.
More than a fortnight since their last competitive fixture, Villa initially rode their luck at Stadio Dall’Ara – Bologna had a goal ruled out for offside and struck the bar – then took firm control of the tie.
Ezri Konsa put them ahead against the run of play, before Ollie Watkins bagged a brace either side of Jonathan Rowe’s well-taken reply for the Rossoblu.
Having restored their two-goal cushion with virtually the last kick, Unai Emery‘s men are in a particularly strong position to progress.
Coached by four-time winner Emery – a proven expert at navigating the latter stages – Villa have now posted eight straight wins in UEFA’s second-tier tournament since slipping up in Deventer, where they suffered a shock loss to Go Ahead Eagles.
On Sunday, the 1982 continental champions met another European Cup-winning club from the Midlands, playing out an eventful Premier League draw with Nottingham Forest.
Morgan Rogers clipped the crossbar before both he and Watkins wasted good chances to claim maximum points at the City Ground, but Villa remain safely inside England’s top five and are on track for more Champions League football.
Emery’s side could soon meet Forest again in the Europa League semis, though they must first finish off Bologna.
Precedent suggests they should: the Villans have won 15 of their last 17 home fixtures in Europe – including all of the last eight – and they average two goals per game at Villa Park in this season’s competition.
© Iconsport / Ipp
Meanwhile, Bologna need a minor miracle if they are to advance to the next round, having already lost twice in Birmingham since the start of last season.
Across three meetings overall, Villa have outscored the Rossoblu by six goals to one, even though Vincenzo Italiano‘s team were far more competitive back at the Dall’Ara.
Since losing 1-0 at Villa Park in September, Bologna have actually won all five away matches in Europe, but history will be stacked high against them on Thursday.
Only one of 67 teams have lost the first leg of a Europa League knockout tie by at least two goals at home and still gone through, and even that took place within the same city: Sevilla overcame local rivals Real Betis in 2014.
So, after their club-record run of 11 European games without defeat was finally halted, last year’s Coppa Italia winners face an underwhelming end to the current campaign.
Italiano and co are already out of the cup and they trail sixth-placed Roma by nine points in Serie A, despite beating Lecce 2-0 last weekend.
With nothing to lose, Bologna will now go all-out to stage a spectacular comeback in England, where they have been beaten five times since their sole success back in 1967.
On that occasion, the Emilian club conquered West Bromwich Albion 3-1 at the Hawthorns – not far away from Villa Park – and a similar result is required once again.
Aston Villa Europa League form:
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Aston Villa form (all competitions):
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Bologna Europa League form:
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Bologna form (all competitions):
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Team News
© Iconsport / Sandra Ruhaut
After Emi Martinez withdrew just before kickoff on Sunday, it remains to be seen whether Aston Villa’s back-up goalkeeper Marco Bizot will continue to deputise.
Tyrone Mings is also a doubt, while Boubacar Kamara and Jadon Sancho are still injured and Ross Barkley is ineligible due to his omission from the UEFA squad list.
The latter’s absence should see either Douglas Luiz or Emi Buendia come into Emery’s starting XI.
Watkins and captain John McGinn are Villa’s leading scorers in this Europa League campaign with three goals apiece – both also need one more to become the club’s all-time top scorer in Europe.
Meanwhile, Bologna forwards Federico Bernardeschi and Rowe have hit the net five and four times respectively; the latter has also attempted and completed the most dribbles in this year’s knockout rounds.
Also vying for selection in support of lone striker Santiago Castro, Riccardo Orsolini ended his long drought with a late strike last weekend.
Italiano can recall Martin Vitik – who missed the first leg through suspension – but fellow defender Jhon Lucumi will be banned on Thursday evening.
Both Charalampos Lykogiannis and Thijs Dallinga face fitness tests, while Benjamin Dominguez and first-choice goalkeeper Lukasz Skorupski are still sidelined.
Either Federico Ravaglia or teenager Massimo Pessina – who surprisingly played against Lecce – will fill in for Skorupski at Villa Park.
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Onana, Tielemans; McGinn, Buendia, Rogers; Watkins
Bologna possible starting lineup:
Ravaglia; Mario, Vitik, Heggem, Miranda; Moro, Freuler; Bernardeschi, Ferguson, Rowe; Castro
We say: Aston Villa 2-1 Bologna (Aston Villa win 5-2 on aggregate)
Although Aston Villa’s fine home record has been hit by a few recent setbacks, the hosts rarely lose a European game in B6.
Bologna have been much improved since a mid-season slump, but they remain vulnerable at the back and could be caught out more than once.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
