Predator box office update, franchise future

• Disney’s “Tron: Ares” and “Predator: Badlands” reflect how it’s content with recycling IP from its own toy chest, to varying results.

• But to survive the next phase of the film business, it will have to step outside of its comfort zone.

• It feels like the company is innovating everywhere except at the cinema.

It’s been five weeks since “Tron: Ares” hit theaters and it feels like a Disney+ streaming announcement is imminent. I’m surprised we haven’t gotten one already.

The movie has earned $140 million globally, a little over half of which is from the US. For those keeping track, its predecessor, “Tron: Legacy,” scored $400 million 15 years ago.

Maybe “Ares” will find a following on streaming — after all, the previous Tron movies are more cult classics than mainstream hits. And maybe it will drive some more interest in Disney’s Tron theme park rides. But by box office standards, the movie is an unmitigated disaster.

Last week, though, a different kind of Disney IP dropped with a more optimistic start. “Predator: Badlands,” Disney’s first theatrical release for the franchise since it got it in the 2019 Fox merger, earned $80 million worldwide, including $40 million in the US, exceeding expectations. The big caveat is that it dropped significantly this weekend. But we’ll see how it plays out in the coming weeks (Wickedator, anyone?).

Regardless, “Ares” and “Badlands” represent Disney’s entire movie strategy — dig into its toy chest for IP it can recycle and exploit for maximum exposure. With “Ares,” they saw a product left dormant on screen for over a decade; no good when it is also the namesake of a major theme park attraction.

With “Badlands,” they were capitalizing on successful streaming endeavors in the hopes that would translate to box office. They didn’t buy Fox just to let one of its biggest properties remain a TV movie. And now they have a chance to intertwine the Predator and Alien franchises for a new generation.

But while the two movies are following a familiar Disney formula to differing results, they are also outliers in its bigger toy chest, and reflect a certain difficulty the company is facing in fostering its franchises beyond the usual suspects.

Animated sequels like “Inside Out 2” and “Moana 2” are hits, as are Marvel events like “Deadpool and Wolverine.” Sure-thing remakes like “Moana” next year are promising, but Disney’s running out of classics and modern classics to exploit that people will actually care about (see, “Snow White”). Original animated movies like “Elio”? DOA. Marvel movies that aren’t obvious money makers? Struggling.

Disney is better positioned than most studios to weather this kind of storm in the near term. As long as it releases a few mega-blockbusters a year, which it usually does, it’s fine. And this year it’s had “Lilo and Stitch,” with likely “Zootopia 2” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” on deck.

But it, and every other legacy studio, is woefully behind the times of what audiences are into today. Young people are driving the box office, and they like Minecraft and anime. Meanwhile, “The Running Man” and the third “Now You See Me” movie are what’s in theaters this weekend. Studios continue to dig into their chests of years- or even decades-old IP instead of being proactive.

Is Disney suited to adapt to the new reality? As I’ve written before, remakes and sequels of its own content can only go so far. It needs to foster new franchises. But it’s never seemed particularly interested in scooping up video game or anime rights.

Instead, the company is innovating in other ways, beyond the cinema. It has struck a deal with Epic to create a virtual world based on its IP in Fortnite. It’s planning to combine Hulu TV with Fubo. It just launched a new ESPN streaming app. And it recently said it would allow Disney+ users to create and watch AI-generated content.

This all seems like Disney’s way of being more tech-forward, but that does nothing for the film business. Next year could be another big year, with a “Moana” remake, a “Mandalorian” movie, “Toy Story 5,” and an “Avengers” sequel. But long-term, what is the plan? I guess the MCU’s X-Men is something to look forward to?

Sony and global streamers like Netflix already have a strong foothold in anime, but could other Hollywood studios give their own IP the anime (or perhaps more accurately, anime-styled) treatment? The anime floodgates have obviously opened, but it will take patience and persistence for it to break through with casual audiences.

And other studios are shoring up video game IP; Paramount nabbed Call of Duty, WB has Minecraft, Universal is all in on Super Mario, Sony literally owns PlayStation. Disney is the outlier here, and might get left behind unless it steps outside of its comfort zone.

To be fair, Alien and Predator movies are kind of outside of that comfort zone. Even Deadpool was kind of. But are these are still well-known, legacy properties.

On the recent episode of Matt Belloni’s The Town podcast, he asked Crunchyroll president Rahul Purini why Disney didn’t pursue buying the anime-focused streamer. Purini said that Sony, its owner, already has a strong foothold in the anime business so there was a lot of obvious overlap there.

But it was a fair question, in the sense that it reflects opportunities to step outside that comfort zone I mentioned. I’ve thought the same before; I previously noted how something like “Wicked” would have fit perfectly into Disney’s pipeline.

Looking at how Disney has dominated the last decade-plus at the movies, it’s hard to think they could ever be the underdog. But the crown needs to change hands eventually.

• Speaking of “Predator: Badlands,” I really, really dug it. My review.

• Thanks to the Blank Check podcast, I’ve finally caught up on the Coen Brothers’ filmography. Here’s my ranking.

• If you’re not watching “Pluribus,” Apple’s new sci-fi show from the creator of “Breaking Bad,” you should be.

• The new episodic video game, “Dispatch,” is a delight.

🤖 Disney will allow users to create AI-generated content on Disney+. Cool!

🚀 Amazon’s “Mass Effect” TV series, based on the video game franchise, will take place after the original game trilogy.

💰 Netflix, Paramount, and Comcast are preparing bids for Warner Bros. Discovery.