Heat vs. Warriors Prediction, Odds, Picks – Nov. 19

The Golden State Warriors (9-7) battle the Miami Heat (8-6) on November 19, 2025 at Kaseya Center. Wednesday’s game between the Heat and the Warriors sees the Heat as a strong, 6.5-point favorite. The over/under is 230.5 points for the matchup.

Here’s everything you need to know about the Heat-Warriors game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Heat vs. Warriors Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Wednesday, November 19, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida
• TV: FDSSUN and NBCS-BA
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Heat vs. Warriors Prediction

ATS Pick: Warriors (+ 6.5)
O/U Pick: Over (230.5)
Score Prediction: Heat 122 – Warriors 116

Heat vs. Warriors Betting Insights

• The Heat and their opponent have combined to score over 230.5 points, the current matchup’s over/under, in 11 of 14 games this year.
• This year, seven of the Warriors’ 16 games have had a combined total of more than 230.5 points scored.
• Between them, these two teams average 9.6 more points per game (240.1) than this game’s total (230.5).
• The Heat and the Warriors have seen their opponents average a combined 5.4 more points per game than the point total of 230.5 set for this game.
• Miami has been chosen as the favorite in four games this year and has walked away with the win three times (75%) in those games.
• Golden State has been an underdog in six games this season and has come away with the win three times (50%) in those contests.
• Miami holds a 2-0 record in the last two head-to-head matchups with Golden State.
• The Heat also have a 2-0 record against the spread when taking on the Warriors.

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat have played 14 games, with nine wins against the spread.
• Miami covered the spread in its only game when favored by 6.5 points or more.
• The Heat have hit the over in 56.2% of their opportunities this year (nine times over 16 games with a set point total).
• The Heat put up 10.2 more points per game (124.6) than the Warriors allow (114.4).
• Miami is 9-3 against the spread and 8-4 overall when scoring more than 114.4 points.
• The Heat make 48.8% of their shots from the field this season, which is 1.2 percentage points higher than the Warriors have allowed to their opponents (47.6%).
• In home games, the Heat own a better record against the spread (6-1-0) compared to their ATS record on the road (3-3-1).
• Miami has gone over the over/under in a lower percentage of home games (57.1%) than road tilts (71.4%).

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• Jaime Jaquez Jr. averages 17.1 points, 6.9 boards and 5.1 assists per game, shooting 52.8% from the field.
• Andrew Wiggins puts up 16.7 points, 2.9 assists and 4.9 rebounds per game.
• Kel’el Ware posts 11.2 points, 9.6 rebounds and 0.7 assists per contest, shooting 54.4% from the floor and 38.9% from beyond the arc with 1.0 made 3-pointers per game.
• Norman Powell averages 25.5 points, 2.5 assists and 3.8 boards.
• Davion Mitchell averages 10.6 points, 2.9 rebounds and 7.4 assists per contest, shooting 50.4% from the field and 38.6% from downtown with 1.2 made 3-pointers per game.

Warriors Recent Trends

• The Warriors are 4-5-1 against the spread and 5-5 overall in their last 10 contests.
• Golden State has averaged a total of 228.9 combined points in its last 10 games, 1.6 fewer than this game’s over/under of 230.5.
• The Warriors have played 16 games, with eight wins against the spread.
• Golden State has been underdogs by 6.5 points or more two times this year and has not covered the spread once.
• Warriors games this year have hit the over on 10 of 16 set point totals (62.5%).
• The Warriors put up an average of 115.5 points per game, 6.0 fewer points than the 121.5 the Heat allow.
• When it scores more than 121.5 points, Golden State is 4-0 against the spread and 4-0 overall.
• The Warriors are shooting 45.7% from the field, 1.8% higher than the 43.9% the Heat’s opponents have shot this season.
• This season, the Warriors are 4-0-1 at home against the spread (.800 winning percentage). On the road, they are 4-7-0 ATS (.364).
• Golden State’s games have gone above the over/under 40% of the time at home (two of five), and 72.7% of the time away (eight of 11).
• The Warriors’ winning percentage at home as moneyline favorites is 1.000 (4-0), and on the road it is .333 (2-4).

Warriors Recent Stats

Warriors Leaders

• Jimmy Butler III generates 20.1 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game for the Warriors.
• The Warriors are getting 27.9 points, 3.6 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game from Stephen Curry this season.
• Brandin Podziemski gives the Warriors 11.5 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2.9 assists per contest while putting up 1.2 steals and 0.3 blocked shots.
• Draymond Green gives the Warriors 7.9 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists per contest while posting 0.7 steals and 0.8 blocked shots.
• The Warriors are getting 13.8 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game from Jonathan Kuminga this year.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.