As the season of giving ramps up, unfancied sides across the Premier League will be hoping for a surprise present from their opponents this festive period.
Here’s why three underdogs among this week’s fixtures may well see Christmas come early.
Fulham v Nottingham Forest, 22nd December, 8pm GMT/3pm ET
Spirits are high in Nottingham as Forest head to the capital for the first time since mid-September.
How times have changed since that last trip down south. A resounding defeat at Arsenal marked a feeble start to the shockingly fleeting Ange Postecoglou era that ended little more than a month later.
Fast forward to last Sunday, though, and it was all smiles at the City Ground — the toothiest of all sported by Sean Dyche as he watched his side torch a bedraggled Tottenham Hotspur team 3-0 just three days after guiding The Tricky Trees to their first European away victory since 1995 in Utrecht.
Though the loss of Ivorian midfielder Ibrahim Sangare, who capped a virtuoso performance against Spurs with a rasping strike, to Africa Cup of Nations duties is less than ideal, Dyche has options to partner Elliot Anderson in Douglas Luiz and Nico Dominguez.
What’s more, Igor Jesus continues to impress up front and winger Callum Hudson-Odoi looks to be rediscovering the form that drove Forest up the table last season. Add that to a record of six wins and just two defeats across the last 10 games, and the good times indeed look to be returning to Forest.
The mood is slightly less cheery at Fulham, even as Harry Wilson continues to nail his Lionel Messi tribute act. Late defeat at Craven Cottage against Crystal Palace earlier in December made it two home losses in a row, with Marco Silva’s side finding more joy on the road against — you guessed it — Spurs and Burnley.
There was more late heartbreak in midweek as an added-time Lewis Miley header shattered the Cottagers’ dreams of a Carabao Cup semi-final berth. Granted, the scheduling of the Forest game means a few precious extra days of recovery, but their in-form visitors will have had a full week to prepare by the time Monday’s fixture kicks off.
And while the absence of Sangare is a blow for Dyche, Silva has been hit even harder by the loss of his key Nigerian trio to AFCON. Of Fulham’s 23 league goals to date, Alex Iwobi and Samuel Chukwueze have contributed a combined 10 goals and assists, while defender Calvin Bassey has played in every game.
A couple of notes of caution: Forest’s away record reads three losses and two wins in the last five, and the odds have them as only marginal underdogs in what could be a toss-up. Even so, two of our four resident predictors have them pulling off the win, so definitely one that’s worth a look.
Wolves v Brentford, 20th December, 3pm GMT/10am ET
I know what you’re thinking, reader — but if it’s going to happen, this might be it.
There is little more that can or need be said about how bleak it has been for Wolves, who are huge underdogs, but if the worst campaign (so far) ever mounted by a team in England’s top four tiers is to finally get off the ground, then Brentford could well pave the red and white runway.
Taking Saturday’s seemingly doomed hosts out of the equation, only Burnley have a worse away Premier League record than Brentford, and merely by virtue of having two better goal difference to go alongside their one win and seven defeats.
Even then, the Clarets have scored five more than the Bees’ six on the road (no prizes for guessing where three of those came), with the London side’s only victory coming against West Ham on Nuno Espirito Santo’s home debut in October.
After an impressive start that punctured the pre-season pessimism following the exits of long-time manager Thomas Frank, as well as star strike duo Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo, Keith Andrews’ team have stalled since the start of November, winning just two of their last eight.
They barely laid a glove on a fragile Spurs side last time out and have since become more blunt with the loss of club-record signing Dango Ouattara to AFCON. The Burkina Faso winger is the team’s leading creative force with four assists and is behind only Igor Thiago in goals scored.
Then there are the green shoots — granted, very flimsy — sprouting at Molineux. Rob Edward’s side came within mere seconds of holding Arsenal to a draw at the Emirates last Saturday, as a resolute defensive performance prevented the league leaders from managing a shot on target throughout the opening 45 minutes for the first time this season.
Despite the misery of a second own goal snatching away a shock draw, Wolves can take heart from the numerous positives that they simply have to preserve if they are to avoid the ignominy of claiming Derby’s lowest points record title. Win Saturday, and they’re almost halfway there.
Newcastle United v Chelsea, 20th December, 12:30pm GMT/7.30am ET
Chelsea may have the advantage of an extra day’s preparation time over Newcastle after both sides emerged unscathed from midweek Carabao Cup quarter-final scares, but the Blues are by no means flying free.
The uneasy atmosphere following Enzo Maresca’s unprompted “worst 48 hours” outburst that saw him lament a lack of support has not been soothed by Thursday’s news, reported by The Athletic’s David Ornstein, that the Italian is high on Manchester City’s list of potential Pep Guardiola replacements.
It’s an uncertain mood that mirrors the instability of team selection (as shown below and here), performances and results. Inconsistency continues to plague his young side, who went from startlingly good against Barcelona and Arsenal to startlingly poor against Leeds and Bournemouth in the space of a fortnight.
Only Crystal Palace boast a better away record than Chelsea this campaign, but St. James’ Park has been a barren hunting ground in recent years. The Blues haven’t won at Newcastle since 2021, losing all four games since by an aggregate score of 9-1.
Granted, the hosts are not short on wounds of their own, having suffered a chastening Tyne-Wear derby defeat at Sunderland last week and an injury crisis at the back.
Tino Livramento is a doubt to face his old club Saturday after being forced off with a knee injury in the midweek win over Fulham, with Dan Burn, Sven Botman, Kieran Trippier, Emil Krafth and – potentially – Lewis Hall all sidelined.
Yet as poor as Eddie Howe’s side were at the Stadium of Light last weekend, his team remain a force on their own turf. Had it not been for late, late heartbreak against Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs (scorers in the 10th, 6th and 5th minutes of injury time respectively), Newcastle would boast the Premier League’s second-best home record behind the Gunners.
Again, Newcastle aren’t huge underdogs, but with Chelsea at better than even there is a chance of a surprise, something our own Oli Kay is predicting. The Toon Army will be desperate for a reaction after the manner of defeat against their rivals and Chelsea have already buckled twice amid hostile atmospheres created by wounded opponents, imploding away at then-struggling Manchester United and Leeds.