When President Donald Trump took office in January, his administration immediately set to work ushering in major changes to health and science policy. In 2026, it’s likely the landscape will shift even further.
This year, federal health officials revised longstanding vaccine guidance; a senior U.S. Food and Drug Administration official claimed in an internal memo that at least 10 children died after receiving the COVID-19 vaccine; and the Trump administration entered into direct negotiations with pharmaceutical companies to lower the cost of prescription drugs.
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Health care costs and the Affordable Care Act (ACA) helped lead to the country’s longest-ever federal government shutdown, and in the last weeks of the year, lawmakers scrambled to pass a litany of health bills.
Moving into 2026, rising health care costs will be top of mind for lawmakers and millions of Americans. Here are other key health developments expected in 2026.
Health care costs and a policy litmus test
Without the enhanced ACA subsidies, health insurance premiums for the more than 20 million Americans will increase by about 20% to 30%. For a household earning $85,000, the annual cost for health insurance premiums alone will increase by $22,000 in 2026, according to KFF, a health policy organization.
Health care costs have already outpaced inflation in recent years. Between 2019 and 2020, health spending increased by 10.4%; it climbed by another 7.5% from 2021 to 2022, reaching almost $5 trillion. Today, 20% of the country’s gross domestic product is spent on healthcare. That means that $1 out of every $5 spent in the U.S. goes toward health care.
Moving into 2026, lawmakers will likely continue to scramble to pass health legislation that addresses affordability. The bill that passed in the House will move to the Senate, where multiple outlets expect the vote to fail. Lawmakers could still potentially revive the ACA subsidies, especially if they become critical in a future legislative compromise. Regardless, health care is becoming increasingly unsustainable in the U.S.; without major changes, millions of Americans will lose access to care.
Shifting vaccine & nutrition guidance
When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was confirmed as the Health and Human Services secretary — overseeing the FDA, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and other health agencies — he swiftly started implementing his Make America Healthy Again agenda.
Kennedy replaced all 17 members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), an independent group of physicians and public health officials that develops guidance about the use of vaccines in the country. The newly constituted committee went on to change longstanding recommendations around chickenpox and hepatitis B immunizations.
Federal vaccine guidelines are not legally binding. Ultimately, each state sets its own vaccine schedule. And even state laws are only applicable to children who attend public school, and in some states, private schools, day care and summer camps. Today, no American, outside the military, is required by law to receive any vaccine.
Earlier this month, Trump signed an executive order directing Kennedy and the CDC to review vaccine recommendations from other developed countries and to amend the U.S. vaccine schedule to align with best practices, signaling more changes in U.S. vaccine policy are likely to come in 2026.
Kennedy has repeatedly blamed poor nutrition as a central factor underpinning the country’s chronic disease epidemic. He has criticized ultra-processed foods and food additives such as dyes. In January, the FDA banned the use of Red Dye No. 3, and in April, the agency said it was working to phase out all petroleum-based synthetic dyes. The Trump administration also approved several states to ban Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) funds for sugary sodas and other foods classified as unhealthy. Today, 18 states impose these restrictions.
Kennedy has long promised to overhaul nutritional guidelines. The revised Dietary Guidelines for Americans are due out any time; Kennedy has warned they may vary drastically from previous versions.
Artificial intelligence in health care
Artificial intelligence is one of the fastest-growing industries globally. In 2023, the market was valued at nearly $50 billion. By 2035, analysts estimate the industry will be worth over $5 trillion. The Trump administration released a comprehensive national AI Action Plan outlining steps to accelerate AI innovation and position the U.S. as a global AI leader. He also signed an executive order to limit state-level AI regulation in favor of federal oversight.
AI is already widely used in health care, primarily for imaging diagnostics, administrative tasks and drug discovery. Although an increasing number of health care and pharmaceutical companies are rolling out AI-based tools, regulation remains fragmented. Medical professional groups, federal regulators, academic researchers, civil-rights organizations and international bodies — including the American Medical Association, FDA, the Government Accountability Office, the World Health Organization and the American Civil Liberties Union — have raised concerns about patient safety, a lack of transparency from companies utilizing AI and unclear accountability if something goes wrong.
The FDA has been discussing frameworks for evaluating and monitoring the real-world performance of AI tools, including generative AI models used in digital mental health. The agency has set up advisory panels such as the Digital Health Advisory Committee. In 2026, AI policies, regulations and approval processes may emerge.