Amazon’s (AMZN) stock has hardly had a prime performance in 2025.
Shares of the e-commerce and cloud giant are only up 6% year to date, badly lagging the 18% advance for the S&P 500 (^GSPC). Experts cite slowing sales growth in the Amazon Web Services (AWS) business and mixed sentiment on the company’s ability to monetize artificial intelligence as the drivers of the “mixed” sentiment.
Amazon didn’t do much to bolster sentiment in October when it announced its largest-ever round of layoffs in its history, eliminating 14,000 corporate roles.
The stock is likely to close out the year with the unenviable award for worst-performing “Magnificent Seven” member.
For perspective, the top performer of the Magnificent Seven, Alphabet (GOOG), has surged 66% this year on the back of optimism for its new Gemini 3 model.
But Wall Street has stuck with Amazon, with some even putting it on their “top picks” lists for 2026.
Evercore ISI tech analyst Mark Mahaney wrote that he thinks Amazon has about 50% upside potential. He was one of the Street analysts slapping a top pick stamp on the stock.
Mahaney cited several catalysts coming into focus soon, including reaccelerating growth at AWS, demand for new Trainium AI chips, further strong growth in advertising revenue, and a ramp in the new Alexa+.
“At the end of the day, Amazon remains a high quality compounder (25% EPS compound annual growth rate), with solid double-digit revenue growth, expanding operating margins, and free cash flow likely to inflect up materially in a 24-month timeframe,” Mahaney said.
Yahoo Finance data shows of the 67 sell-side analysts that cover Amazon, 96% rate the stock a Strong Buy or Buy. The average $295 price target for the Street assumes 27% upside from current levels.
Input from Polymarket, a Yahoo Finance partner for prediction market data, reveals Main Street has a more skeptical take on the stock, however. About 96% of users think the stock will be little changed by the end of January 2026 compared to today.
JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth is in Mahaney’s bull camp on Amazon, with a more subdued projection on the stock that estimates 30% upside potential.
Anmuth’s thesis on Amazon is similar to Mahaney’s, though he noted that Amazon’s new $38 billion, seven-year cloud services deal with OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) could “add upside” to the company’s top line.
“Amazon is the most diversified mega-cap across revenues and profit and has various large growth opportunities — mixed sentiment and attractive valuation,” Anmuth added.