The race for a place in the Champions League is no longer as simple as a top-four battle for Premier League clubs these days.
With European Performance Spots (EPS) up for grabs, fifth place can be elevated into the Champions League – as Newcastle found out last season.
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But will the Premier League get that reward again this season?
How do European Performance Spots work?
Two countries will secure an EPS apiece for next season.
To work out the successful nations, Uefa takes into consideration the overall performance of clubs in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.
It creates an average by taking the total coefficient score and dividing it by the number of clubs each league has in European competition.
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England has a coefficient score of 121.375 so, with nine Premier League clubs in Europe, its average for the EPS table is 13.486.
Each win – regardless of the competition – is worth two coefficient points, with a draw worth one.
The key differential is in bonus points awarded based on clubs’ finishing positions in the league phase and knockout rounds, as these are higher in the Champions League.
By way of an example, the teams that finish 25th-36th in the Champions League get six bonus points. That is more than the four points the team finishing top of the Conference League table will receive.
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Is the Premier League in a good position?
It is in a pretty strong spot right now – but the table will look very different in a month.
Much will depend on the final two rounds of matches in the Champions League and Europa League.
Poland is in first place but all four of its teams have played in the Conference League, and one has been eliminated. With that competition having wrapped up its league phase, Poland will score no points in January and will slide down the table.
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Because of the number of bonus points available in the Champions League, it is highly improbable a league outside of the traditional top five will claim one of the EPS places.
England is in second and is 1.201 points ahead of Germany. In real terms, that’s four victories and a draw for Bundesliga clubs.
But England has more teams in Europe – nine to Germany’s seven – so each win is worth less to its average score.
For that reason England has to keep many clubs active as possible, or other leagues can chip away at its score.
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It is highly likely that eight English clubs will continue in the Champions League and the Europa League, and therefore pick up hefty bonus points. Crystal Palace are already through to the Conference League knockout play-off round.
Germany could lose both Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt from the Champions League, which would strengthen England’s position.
Cyprus is not a realistic contender with only three teams left active – and Pafos could be eliminated from the Champions League.
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As two leagues get the extra Champions League spots, Germany and another country would need to overtake the Premier League – and there is a big gap.
Italy trail England by eight wins. For Spain, it’s nine wins and a draw.
For Italy, Juventus and Napoli have struggled in the Champions League but should ensure a full complement of teams go through.
Spain, which has eight teams in Europe, will almost certainly lose Villarreal from the Champions League. Athletic Club could drop out too, while Celta Vigo’s progress in the Europa League is also uncertain.
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It is not over, however. If English clubs were to suffer poor results in the knockout play-off round and last 16, that could open the door. Results for other leagues would soon start to add up.
It is looking very good, but nothing is certain.
How does the Premier League race for Champions League places look?
Arsenal, Manchester City and Aston Villa have opened a decent gap in the top three places.
The Gunners are five points clear of City, who face Sunderland on New Year’s Day. Another point separates the Blues from Villa, who in turn are seven ahead of Liverpool.
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The Reds will hope to open a five-point gap to fifth place if they beat Leeds on New Year’s Day – but behind them there is quite a fight for places on.
Just seven points separate Chelsea in fifth and Bournemouth in 15th – and we could almost end up with an alternative ‘title race’ for fifth.