After a rough start to their West Coast trip, Cade Cunningham and the Detroit Pistons finished it off with a win over the Los Angeles Lakers, keeping them in the No. 1 spot in the Eastern Conference.
Now, the Pistons return home – where they are 12-2 this season – to take on the Miami Heat and Bam Adebayo. Miami has won three games in a row and remains in the playoff mix in the Eastern Conference.
However, the Heat have seen their offense fall off in recent weeks, dropping outside the top 10 in offensive rating. Miami still is playing at a fast pace, making it a fun team to watch, but the offensive dip has led to the team falling back towards .500 this season.
Oddsmakers have set the Pistons as favorites in this matchup, but can they cover the spread for the ninth time this season at Little Caesars Arena?
Let’s examine the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this New Year’s Day matchup.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Heat Injury Report
Pistons Injury Report
Heat Best NBA Prop Bet
In today’s best NBA props column for SI Betting, I broke down why Adebayo may be undervalued on the glass:
Heat big man Bam Adebayo is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game this season, but oddsmakers have knocked his rebounds prop to 8.5 against a Detroit team that ranks second in the NBA in rebounding percentage.
Still, Miami is No. 1 in the NBA in pace, so there should be a ton of possessions on both sides, giving Bam plenty of time to pad his rebounding numbers. Earlier this season, Adebayo had 10 rebounds in 33 minutes in a 138-135 loss to Detroit, and he’s picked up at least nine boards in six straight games and 10 of his last 13.
Overall, the Heat star is averaging 14.1 rebound chances per game, so I’ll take a shot on him at this discounted price on Thursday.
These teams combined for 273 points in their last meeting, and the Heat remain the No. 1 team in the NBA in pace, which naturally leads to some high-scoring games.
While Detroit has the No. 2 defensive rating in the NBA, these teams are No. 7 (Detroit) and No. 13 (Miami) in offensive rating in the 2025-26 season. Miami is averaging 121.0 points per game, which really raises the ceiling for the total in this matchup.
This season, the OVER has hit in 17 of Detroit’s games, including eight of the team’s 14 games at home. While Miami hasn’t been a surefire OVER team since it plays a ton of games with high totals, it has cleared 238.5 points in four of its last six games, finishing with 237 combined points in one of the games that it fell short of this number.
Since the Heat have been pretty solid against the spread on the road (9-7), I expect this game to be a closer, high-scoring affair on Thursday night.
Pick: OVER 238.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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