Greek tourism has recorded successive records over the past decade, a study by the National Bank of Greece highlights; however, it is now at a turning point, as mature-destination strategies are nearing their limits and new sources of competition are emerging.
Transforming strong demand into sustainable economic value and resilience, as noted in the study, requires a coordinated effort along two axes:
** First, showcasing the country’s “hidden treasures” by promoting alternative destinations (given that our islands absorb nearly half of arrivals while covering only 15% of the country’s area).
** Second, restoring investment in core infrastructure to pre-crisis levels (as over the past five years they remain 8% lower) so as to keep pace with tourism investment momentum (which is 14% higher than pre-crisis levels) — thereby demonstrating our country’s ability to manage its own success.
In detail, the summary of the study, published on 23 December 2025:
“Greek tourism is heading toward a new record in 2025, as international arrivals are expected to exceed 37 million (+5% compared to 2024). Although seismic activity in Santorini acted as a drag in the first half (+0.6%), the sector’s momentum confirmed its strong structural trend with a sharp increase in the second half (around 7%). Notably, this momentum shows no signs of exhaustion, as airline bookings for the first quarter of 2026 are running 10% higher than the corresponding period of 2025.
Greek tourism has recorded successive records over the past decade (excluding the pandemic), adding 13 million new international arrivals. A deeper analysis of the data reveals that approximately 40% of this increase stemmed from the overall expansion of the global tourism market, which created favorable conditions for all destinations. An additional 20% is linked to the shift of international demand toward our broader regional market (Europe–Mediterranean), which strengthened its position on the global tourism map. The remaining 40%, however, constitutes a net gain for Greece, as it reflects an increase in its market share vis-à-vis direct competitors within our ‘neighborhood’. In other words, Greece’s rise is the combined result of favorable international trends and an improvement in its competitive position. This is reflected at the market-share level (reaching 2.5% in 2025 from 2.0% in 2016), ranking Greece among the top 5 destinations in our regional market with the largest market-share gains over the past decade.
This success, however, is unfolding within a changing tourism neighborhood:
- In the northern Mediterranean, Turkey and Albania are moving aggressively, recording significant market-share gains in our regional market (+3.0 and +0.8 percentage points, respectively, over the past decade).
- In the southern Mediterranean, Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco are re-emerging dynamically, increasing their combined share in our regional market by 2 percentage points, as they leverage competitive pricing, lower saturation, and improved geopolitical stability.
- At the same time, mature European destinations (such as the UK and France) as well as traditional Mediterranean destinations (such as Italy and Spain) are losing ground (with a combined loss of 3 percentage points for the four countries) — indicating that they are approaching the natural limits of tourism growth under the conditions of previous decades.
Greece’s outperformance was not accidental. It was based on structural foundations — primarily the upgrading of hotel quality and the strengthening of air connectivity. These were the fuels of growth to date. The next question is what will be required going forward to ensure the continuity of our country’s success. In a competitive tourism neighborhood and with new demand trends emerging, the winners will be those who manage to respond with speed and effectiveness. In this context, it is positive that:
- At a time when long-haul travelers are expected to account for around one quarter of new demand in our regional market, our country’s connections with mature long-haul markets, such as the US, and with emerging long-haul markets, such as China and India, are being strengthened.
- The pronounced seasonality of Greek tourism is beginning, slowly but steadily, to ease, with continuously increasing tourist flows being distributed more evenly throughout the year. Specifically, the summer season now accounts for 50% of arrivals, down from 53% five years ago, although it still exceeds the Mediterranean average (40%).
Overall, Greek tourism is at a turning point, as mature-destination strategies are nearing their limits and new sources of competition are emerging. Transforming strong demand into sustainable economic value and resilience requires a coordinated effort along two axes:
- First, showcasing the country’s “hidden treasures” by promoting alternative destinations (given that our islands absorb nearly half of arrivals while covering only 15% of the country’s area).
- Second, restoring investment in core infrastructure to pre-crisis levels (as over the past five years they remain 8% lower) so as to keep pace with tourism investment momentum (which is 14% higher than pre-crisis levels) — thereby demonstrating our country’s ability to manage its own success.”
