Boyd Gaming (BYD) is back on investors’ radar after a quarterly dividend increase to US$0.20 per share, better than expected Non-GAAP earnings, and new spending plans focused on casinos and online gaming expansion.
See our latest analysis for Boyd Gaming.
Recent news around the higher dividend, better than expected Non-GAAP earnings and fresh capital projects seems to be feeding into sentiment, with a 1-day share price return of 1.89% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 14.04% pointing to gradually building momentum rather than a sharp re-rating.
If Boyd Gaming’s mix of casinos and online expansion has your attention, this could be a good moment to widen your watchlist with 22 top founder-led companies and see what else is gaining investor interest.
With the shares up 14.04% over the past year and trading at a small discount to the US$94.47 analyst target despite an 8.30% intrinsic premium, you have to ask: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is future growth already priced in?
Most Popular Narrative: 9.8% Undervalued
Boyd Gaming’s fair value in the most followed narrative sits at $94.47 against a last close of $85.20, framing the stock as modestly undervalued on those assumptions.
Boyd Gaming’s ongoing expansion activities, including the Sky River project and its phases, are expected to enhance gaming capacity and diversify offerings, potentially leading to future revenue growth.
The company’s investment in upgrading existing properties, like the Suncoast renovation and new amenities at various hotels, is anticipated to enhance customer experience and could drive higher revenues and improved net margins.
Want to understand why a lower assumed growth rate still supports that higher fair value? The core of this narrative is how margins, earnings power and the future P/E all connect. Curious which assumptions really carry the valuation and which ones barely move the needle? The full story sits in the numbers behind that $94.47 figure.
Result: Fair Value of $94.47 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, there are clear pressure points, including competitive hits to properties like The Orleans and weather related disruption in the Midwest and South, that could still unsettle this thesis.
Find out about the key risks to this Boyd Gaming narrative.
Another Check: Market Ratio vs Fair Ratio
Our DCF model is not the only lens here. On earnings, Boyd Gaming trades on a P/E of 3.5x, which looks very low next to the US Hospitality average at 21.9x and peers at 31.4x. The fair ratio sits a touch lower at 3.2x, which hints that some of that apparent discount might simply be the market applying a cautious earnings multiple.
That kind of gap can look like opportunity, but it can also be the market pricing in real risks around future earnings. The key question is which side of that line you think Boyd belongs on.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Boyd Gaming for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 51 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
If this mix of positives and pressure points leaves you on the fence, take a closer look at the full data today and weigh both sides carefully. Then use 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs to make sure you are seeing the complete picture before you decide what to do next.
Looking for more investment ideas?
If Boyd has you thinking more broadly about your portfolio, do not stop here. The screener can surface other opportunities you will want on your radar.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Valuation is complex, but we’re here to simplify it.
Discover if Boyd Gaming might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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