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Hilltop Holdings (HTH) is back in focus after reporting stronger than expected Q4 and full year 2025 financial results, broad based earnings growth, and capital returns through dividends and share buybacks.
See our latest analysis for Hilltop Holdings.
Those results have come alongside a 16.2% 90 day share price return and a 27.2% one year total shareholder return, suggesting recent earnings strength and capital returns have been reflected in improving market sentiment despite some shorter term pullbacks.
If strong bank earnings have your attention, it could be a good moment to widen the lens and look at our screener of 23 top founder-led companies as potential next ideas.
With the stock up strongly over the past year and trading slightly above the latest analyst price target of US$38.67, the key question now is whether Hilltop is still cheap or if the market is already pricing in expectations for the company.
Hilltop Holdings last closed at $39.27 compared with a widely followed fair value narrative of $38.67, putting the shares slightly above that framework while still leaving room for debate on the underlying assumptions.
Industry consolidation and customers’ increasing preference for smaller, well-capitalized regional banks over national banks create opportunities for accretive bolt-on acquisitions and market share gains, supporting future scale and long-term earnings growth.
Curious what kind of loan growth, fee income mix, and profit margins would support that fair value and future earnings profile? The narrative leans on modest growth, changing profitability, and a higher future earnings multiple than the broader US Banks group, tied together using a specific discount rate and shrinking share count assumptions. Those moving parts are what really drive the result.
Result: Fair Value of $38.67 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, higher net charge offs and Hilltop’s exposure to Texas housing and mortgage origination could pressure earnings and challenge the fair value narrative if conditions worsen.
Find out about the key risks to this Hilltop Holdings narrative.
If you see the story differently or simply want to test your own assumptions against the numbers, you can build a custom Hilltop view in just a few minutes. To get started, use Do it your way.