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Mizuho Financial Group (TSE:8411) has drawn fresh attention after reporting higher net interest income and net income for the nine months to December 31, 2025, along with updated full year profit and earnings guidance.
See our latest analysis for Mizuho Financial Group.
The latest earnings update and a series of recent bond offerings, including US$600 million of senior unsecured bonds and a ¥3t shelf registration, have coincided with strong momentum, with a 30 day share price return of 26.2% and a one year total shareholder return of 93.7%.
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With Mizuho shares up 26.2% in a month and 93.7% over the past year, plus an indicated 21.3% intrinsic discount, the key question is whether there is still a buying opportunity here or if the market is already pricing in future growth.
Compared to the narrative fair value of ¥6,468, Mizuho Financial Group’s last close at ¥7,818 sits well above what that framework suggests, which puts extra focus on the assumptions doing the heavy lifting.
The analysts have a consensus price target of ¥4,971.818 for Mizuho Financial Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ¥6,070.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ¥3,800.0.
Want to see what justifies a higher fair value than the consensus target? The narrative leans on richer margins, a different growth path, and a specific future earnings multiple. Curious which ingredients matter most and how they combine into that ¥6,468 figure?
Result: Fair Value of ¥6,468 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, those higher margins and buyback plans could be tested if integration with Rakuten and Greenhill runs into problems or if domestic large deal activity softens.
Find out about the key risks to this Mizuho Financial Group narrative.
The narrative framework suggests Mizuho Financial Group appears about 20.9% overvalued at ¥7,818 compared with a fair value estimate of ¥6,468. Our DCF model presents a different view, with a future cash flow value of ¥9,935.2, indicating the current price is below that figure. Which perspective do you think is more appropriate?
