Cinephiles, celebrity enthusiasts and general lovers of mess rejoice: Hollywood’s biggest night will soon be upon us. The 2026 Academy Awards are on March 15 and, while the ceremony honoring the best in film of the last year might seem pretentious and stodgy, the Oscars are actually anything but.
It’s where Will Smith slapped Chris Rock; where La La Land was mistakenly announced as Best Picture over Moonlight; and where Glenn Close did a dance called “Da Butt.” Jennifer Lawrence fell down! John Travolta said, “Adele Dazeem!” Ellen DeGeneres had all those people take a selfie that’s so powerful it has its own Wikipedia page!
What could happen this year, knowing discourse and drama abound, and it’s difficult to predict who could take home the biggest awards of the night?
We’re so fortunate to have Conan O’Brien, who is back for a second round of hosting and very good at his job, guiding us through the night. Before he takes over, I’ll arm you with the basics that you need to know to survive small talk about the Oscars with your friends and coworkers.
Let’s start with the basics: the show is on Sunday, March 15 at 7 p.m., broadcast live on ABC and streaming on Hulu. There’s a star-studded list of presenters lined up, so you can count on a fascinating red carpet beforehand, with Anne Hathaway, Javier Bardem, Demi Moore, Robert Downey Jr., Paul Mescal and Gwyneth Paltrow all expected to make an appearance.
It’ll all build up to Best Picture, the biggest award of the night. Anora, a Cinderella story about a Brooklyn sex worker who falls for the son of a Russian oligarch, won last year, pulling off its own scrappy-budget-to-riches story and usurping the scandal-plagued villain of the season, Emilia Pérez. There’s a pretty tight race this year too. Let’s get into it.
Who are the key players?
-
Timothée Chalamet: The Marty Supreme star, who’s only 30 but already considered overdue for an Oscar, was long considered a frontrunner for Best Actor. As the season progressed, it seems his viral stunt marketing antics that boosted the ping pong movie at the box office may have hurt his chances. It’s very likely he’ll be bringing Kylie Jenner to the ceremony, though, which is sure to yield even more chatter.
-
Leonardo DiCaprio: He probably won’t win, but that video of him flamboyantly referencing K-pop at the Golden Globes has been on my mind for weeks. I’m keeping an eye on him.
-
Jessie Buckley: The Hamnet star was, until this week, a shoo-in for Best Actress (and, thus, one of the only victors I’d put money on). But then her new movie, The Bride, hit theaters, and some critics say it’s actually so bad that she could do what Eddie Murphy did with Norbit in 2007: accidentally murder her own campaign with a flop. She also recently had her first true scandal, when her comments about making her husband rehome his cats early in their relationship resurfaced. You know what they say about cats.
-
Rose Byrne: If anyone other than Buckley wins Best Actress, it’ll be her. After she very charmingly mentioned that her husband was absent for her Golden Globe win because he was at a reptile convention, I have been rooting for her.
-
Emma Stone: She probably will not win — at 37, she has already won twice — but her reactions at awards shows always seem to go viral.
-
Paul Thomas Anderson: The One Battle After Another writer–director, who you may know from also directing bangers such as Boogie Nights and There Will Be Blood, will almost certainly win at least two Oscars. Admittedly, I am more excited that PTA’s longtime partner Maya Rudolph will be there. Simply the greatest power couple we’ve got.
-
Ryan Coogler: The Sinners writer–director could also have a historic night. Best known for turning Black Panther into a critical and box office success, he’s been compulsively going viral this awards season for the most charming reasons — a video of him explaining film formats got 16 million views, and I cannot stop saying, “I got involved with that.”
-
The whole In Memorium section: A lot of very famous people died this year, and it looks like the portion of the ceremony dedicated to honoring their memory might be the most star-studded portion of the night. Expect Billy Crystal and Meg Ryan to pay tribute to Rob Reiner, and Barbra Streisand to speak in memory of Robert Redford.
How can I sound smart about these movies?
-
What it’s about: A washed-up revolutionary (DiCaprio) breaks out of his stoned paranoia to search for his missing daughter (Chase Infiniti) in a surprisingly funny and consistently unpredictable comedic thriller.
-
What it’s about: (Very hot) twin brothers, both played by Jordan, return to their Southern, Jim Crow-era town to start a juke joint, but their first night in business is interrupted by unwelcome guests who are — I’m sure you’ve heard by now — vampires.
-
What to say if it wins: The least surprising upset of all time, and a great win for people who love vampires and, uh, other oral pleasures.
-
What it’s about: It’s a fictional imagining of the marriage between William Shakespeare (Paul Mescal) and his wife Agnes (Buckley) before and after the death of their son, 11-year-old Hamnet (Jacobi Jupe). Hamnet. Hamlet. You get it.
-
What it’s about: Table tennis-playing ambition monster Marty Mauser (Chalamet), who’s loosely based on a real guy, goes to extreme lengths to make his dreams come true in this 149-minute heart attack.
-
What it’s about: Stone stars as a high-powered CEO who is kidnapped by two men (Jesse Plemons and Aidan Delbis) who suspect she’s an alien planning to destroy Earth. Her captors also shave her head so she can’t communicate with her mother ship — a look that has since been memed into oblivion.
-
What to say if it wins: Wow, that’s extremely surprising!
-
What it’s about: A former professor (Wagner Moura) flees persecution, only to find that his hometown doesn’t offer the quiet refuge he’s seeking during Brazil’s military dictatorship.
-
What to say if it wins: Wow, that’s extremely surprising!
-
What it’s about: Everyone knows this one — a toxic creationship between an egotistical mad genius (Oscar Isaac) and the unkillable monster he forced into existence!
-
What to say if it wins: Wow, that’s extremely surprising!
-
What it’s about: Two sisters reunite with their once-estranged director father (Stellan Skarsgaard), an egomaniac who offers one of them (Renate Reinsve) a role in his upcoming project.
-
What to say if it wins: Wow, that’s extremely surprising!
-
What it’s about: The dangerous but quiet life of a logger (Joel Edgerton) unfolds in the Pacific Northwest during the heyday of the American railroad. I’ll admit this is the sleepiest movie of the bunch.
-
What to say if it wins: Wow, that’s extremely surprising!
-
What it’s about: Brad Pitt stars as Sonny Hayes, a (fictional) once-promising Formula 1 driver with still-killer cheekbones who returns to racing decades after an accident derailed his career, hoping to save his old friend’s team and prove the naysayers wrong. It is Top Gun: Maverick for cars.
-
What to say if it wins: There must have been a misprint.
Conversation starter: Who’s going to win Best Picture?
The Yahoo Best Picture Leaderboard, a power rankings system that predicts which of the 10 Best Picture nominees is likely to take home the trophy, uses a formula that synthesizes award nominations, critic predictions and general fanfare. As of the final ranking, One Battle After Another is poised to win, having snagged the major awards that usually precede a little gold man.
But there’s a twist — Sinners is the most nominated movie in Oscars history. It’s the bigger box office hit with a higher Rotten Tomatoes score, so it’s a real crowd-pleaser. It has steadily gained momentum all season, and, after extended discourse about how its racial politics compare to those of OBAA, could emerge victorious.
Either winner would be a massive, symbolic victory for talented directors being given huge sums of money by Warner Bros to do whatever the hell they want, which is an absolutely delightful plot twist in the era of straight-to-streaming algorithm slop. This is the most watchable lineup of nominees in years, in my humble opinion.
Hot take: There will be chaos no matter what
I can’t overstate this enough: Predicting Oscar winners has been a hobby of mine for more than a decade, but I have no idea who’s going to win any of these acting awards. Even if you don’t care who wins or loses, you should pay attention, because the shock of it all is sure to yield some fun reaction GIFs.
It’s Jordan vs. Chalamet for Best Actor, although we can’t entirely count out Ethan Hawke (who’s overdue for a win and universally beloved) and Wagner Moura (who won the Golden Globe). Buckley seemed like the only woman who might reserve the right to be confident going into the ceremony, but critical reception of The Bride might mean it’s Rose’s Turn (as in Byrne).
Best Supporting Actor could go to literally anyone. Sean Penn looks like the frontrunner, but he could split votes with fellow OBAA nominee Benicio Del Toro. Frankenstein’s Jacob Elordi would, by my count, be the first Oscar winner who also starred in a Netflix romcom trilogy adapted from a Wattpad story. Delroy Lindo is a surprise nominee for Sinners, but I wouldn’t doubt that movie’s ability to sway voters. It’s got momentum, having just won the top honor at the Actor Awards. Sentimental Value’s Stellan Skarsgård would be the second of the trio of potential dads from Mamma Mia to win an Oscar. (Pierce Brosnan, call me.)
There are parallels in the Best Supporting Actress category, too — Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning will probably split votes among Sentimental Value fans, leaving OBAA’s Teyana Taylor (the Golden Globe winner) up against Amy Madigan (the Critics Choice and Actor Awards winner). But, again, don’t count out Sinners or its star Wunmi Mosaku.
Movies are great, but what can I gossip about?
If there’s a lull in conversation — or that portion between the In Memorium and Best Picture is dragging on like it always does — feel free to steal any of my free-flowing thoughts:
-
What is Demi Moore doing presenting when she was snubbed for Best Actress last year? It’s like texting back an ex!
-
A Best Animated Film win for Kpop Demon Hunters would solidify its cultural supremacy. Not only has it won a Golden Globe and a Grammy, but it’s the biggest Netflix movie of all time. It’s a victory for kids with control of the TV remote everywhere.
-
Kylie Jenner might be at the ceremony in support of Chalamet, but she’s got serious acting chops. She plays herself in Charli XCX’s mockumentary The Moment, and a clip has been making the rounds online this week for its surprising charm.
-
Schiaparelli is pronounced: skyap-uh-RELL-ee. You will need this during the red carpet.
-
See a completely random person sitting next to your favorite celebrity? They’re probably a seat filler. They hold seats for guests while they get up to go to the bathroom, chit-chat or hit the bar so the crowd doesn’t look sparse on TV. There are roughly 300 of them per year. If that’s your dream job, like it is mine, you’ll need special connections to the Academy or ABC.