Each week through the end of the regular season, we’ll check in on where I think the major individual awards races stand. This week, let’s go back to the betting odds for the outright order of the awards rankings. We’ll examine what those current betting odds are with about five weeks left in the season.
Here’s how the Awards Watch shakes out: Since 2019, I have been one of the media members selected to vote on the annual awards. It’s an honor that I take very seriously, as I strive to select the players I believe are most deserving. With it being public, I also don’t want to end up getting meme’d to eternity for casting a ridiculous vote. I like this analysis as a pretty good gauge of my thoughts/research and those opinions submitted by other writers and readers of The Athletic.
As is the case with all types of rankings and opinions on the internet, I’m sure this will be met with agreements and handshakes rather than yelling and name-calling. If you have a differing opinion, drop those in the comments. Let’s just get this out of the way first:
- Yes, I watch the games.
- Yes, I have looked at the numbers.
- No, I don’t hate that player.
- No, I don’t hate that team.
- If you have a differing opinion and want to roast me, by all means, have at it. Just try to have a point that makes sense. I’m less interested in your bias toward your favorite player or team, but I am very interested in a possible perspective that I have missed or haven’t considered enough. I’m all about acquiring as much information and as many opinions as possible for these awards.
- With each award section, I’m going to give my criteria for how it should be considered, while taking my thoughts and what I feel the award has historically emphasized in voting into consideration.
- Don’t forget the 65-game rule! Players who don’t get to 65 games in a season are not eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or Most Improved Player.
Let’s get into it. (Odds and stats are entering Wednesday’s games.)
MVP
Five honorable mentions: Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers | Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers | Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves | Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
5. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics (+6000 to win)
We’re pretty sure Jayson Tatum will be back in a Celtics uniform soon, and I’m curious what that does for Brown’s MVP positioning.
Brown is averaging 29.0 points, 7.1 rebounds and 5.0 assists on the season while putting up 48.2/34.9/77.8 shooting splits and a 57.2 true shooting percentage. We haven’t seen his efficiency really drop at all despite a massive change in shot frequency (leading the league with 22.2 attempts per game) and usage (36.6 percent, a career high by far). Without Tatum and despite all of their key absences and departures from last season, Brown has lifted the Celtics to the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference.
This actually reminds me of the 2003-04 Sacramento Kings a bit. Chris Webber tore up his knee in the 2003 playoffs and missed most of the year, but the Kings didn’t skip a beat. They started the season 43-15, holding the best record, best offense and best net rating in the NBA through the first 58 games. Peja Stojaković was one of the leading MVP candidates, battling Kevin Garnett. Then, Webber returned on March 2, and the Kings had to adjust everything to get their main cog back into the flow.
In the final 24 games of the season, the Kings went just 12-12. Webber was not up to the caliber of play we were used to seeing, and Stojaković’s play took a hit. He went from 25.6 points per game with 48.1/44.4/92.5 shooting splits to 21.1 points on 47.7/40.5/93.5. Not a massive drop, and he was still efficient, but a wrench had been thrown into the engine.
There are plenty of potential similarities between these two situations, although it’s different injuries and players, and Tatum and Webber are at different points in their respective careers. We may see Tatum accept a lesser role as he works to get back to his All-NBA-level rhythm and production. We may see him defer. We may see him and Brown pick up right where they left off. We may see Brown take a big dip in his production. There are a lot of possibilities.
Stojaković ended up finishing fourth in MVP voting that season. Brown will most likely still finish in the top five, where he’s projected. But hopefully people don’t forget how awesome he’s been if there is a change in his production or play as the Celtics work Tatum back into form.
4. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (+1700, previously third)
3. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (+1200 to win, previously fourth)
Right now, the betting odds have Brown, Wembanyama and Cunningham filling out the rest of the ballot, but we’re seeing Wembanyama close the gap in the last two weeks.
Wemby’s odds are all over the place, as I’d imagine people are trying to find the best value in case the 65-game rule rears its ugly head. Last week, Cunningham was +425 while Wembanyama was resting at +1400. Then, a couple of days ago, Wembanyama had dropped to +2200 with Cunningham falling to +800. In the last day or so, it’s moved to the current odds you see above. Wembanyama’s odds in the future will probably be pretty high because he’s going to be a popular name to bet on in general. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him switch with Cunningham for the third-best odds (or higher if people become ineligible).
2. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (+650 to win, previously first)
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (-300 to win, previously second)
A week ago, we saw Jokić extremely close to Gilgeous-Alexander in the betting odds. Jokić was +300, and Gilgeous-Alexander was the favorite at -125 to win his second consecutive MVP. Now, the gap is back to growing. Some of that is due to Gilgeous-Alexander’s return and him picking up right where he left off. He’s still nursing that abdominal injury, but we’re seeing him continue to help secure that top seed for the Thunder.
Jokić, meanwhile, is not playing to the level we’ve seen and expect from him. His numbers are still great since his return with 26.4 points, 13.6 rebounds and 8.9 assists. However, his shooting since returning from injury is down to 49.2 percent from the field, 32.4 percent from deep and 77.8 percent from the line. He’s also turning the ball over four times per game with the Nuggets going 6-8 in this stretch.
Jokić is headed in the wrong direction, while Gilgeous-Alexander is surging again. Jokić has been worse on defense, too. It doesn’t look like he has his legs under him, and it’s having a big effect on everything Nuggets. Jamal Murray has been the saving grace on most nights. All of that, combined with the great season SGA was already having (plus having played five more games), makes it easy to see why Gilgeous-Alexander is building his MVP betting odds lead.
Rookie of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies | Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans
3. VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers (+12500 to win)
2. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks (+130 to win)
1. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets (-170 to win)
We had Knueppel as the Rookie of the Year last week in the Awards Watch, when Flagg still had a pretty commanding lead in the odds (-425 compared to +260). Now, the betting odds have swung completely in Knueppel’s favor.
Knueppel set the rookie record for 3-pointers in a season in fewer than 60 games to gain a little bit more national exposure, while Flagg has continued to miss games with a foot sprain. He’s missed eight straight games, and considering the Mavericks’ positioning in the standings, it’s fair to wonder how many more games Flagg might play. Meanwhile, Knueppel, who has played 12 more games than Flagg, is playing really well and helping his team be one of the best stories in the NBA.
Shoutout to Edgecombe for still being on the board.
Defensive Player of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors | Ausar Thompson, Pistons
3. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves (+3000 to win)
2. Chet Holmgren, Thunder (+600 to win)
1. Wembanyama, Spurs (-800 to win)
The Spurs continue to surge, and their defense continues to look monstrous at times, especially when Wembanyama is out there.
We’ve seen a massive uptick in Wemby’s shot blocking, which can always help sway voters. It’s one of the few defensive stats we have where we understand what’s going on. You can have shot blockers who are not great defenders, but that’s not what’s happening in his case.
In his first 30 games this season, Wembanyama averaged 2.5 blocks per game and totaled 76 rejections. In his last 17 games, he’s averaging 3.6 blocks and has 62 total. Even though he has missed 14 games this season, he’s still leading the league in blocks with 138, 21 more than second-place Jay Huff. As long as he qualifies, I’d expect Wemby to run away with this one, and the betting odds are reflecting that.
Rudy Gobert defends Victor Wembanyama during a Spurs-Timberwolves game in Minnesota. (Jesse Johnson . Imagn Images)
Sixth Man of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Tim Hardaway Jr., Nuggets | Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat
3. Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets (+600 to win)
2. Keldon Johnson, Spurs (+325 to win, previously first)
1. Naz Reid, Timberwolves (+100 to win, previously second)
It’s interesting to me that Reid still leads these betting odds, considering his recent slump. Five of his last nine games have been single-digit scoring performances, and he really had a bad February overall. Reid is tied for second in scoring average (13.9) among the three best odds here and the two honorable mentions. Those five players are leading the odds. I wonder if Reid has the most name recognition for the award, having won it a couple of years ago? Maybe that’s why he’s still leading? Jaquez is the leading bench scorer at 15.1 per game. Sheppard might be surging at the right time. He’s averaging 16.8 points over his last 10 games, but four of those have been starts.
Coach of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Jordan Ott, Phoenix Suns | Charles Lee, Hornets
3. Mitch Johnson, Spurs (+800 to win, previously first)
2. Joe Mazzulla, Celtics (+450 to win, previously second)
1. J.B. Bickerstaff, Pistons (-325 to win, previously third)
The Pistons have pretty much been wire-to-wire leading the East, and nobody had them as the No. 1 team in the conference this season. You have the Pistons exceeding their expectations and a totally dominant season atop the standings. Bickerstaff had a great case for the honor last season, and sometimes, you get that to carry over into the voting the next season. Mazzulla is another coach whose team has exceeded expectations, which also makes sense for Johnson being not far behind him in San Antonio.
Most Improved Player
Two honorable mentions: Ryan Rollins, Milwaukee Bucks | Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks
3. Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers (+1100 to win, previously first)
2. Jalen Johnson, Hawks (+225 to win, previously third)
1. Jalen Duren, Pistons (-140 to win, previously unmentioned)
Duren has seen a late surge. He’s gone from about halfway down the list in the betting odds to having a pretty commanding lead over Johnson in Atlanta. Duren went from a good starting center anchoring a good defense to the second-best player and a first-time All-Star on a Pistons team that might end up with the best record in basketball.