Arsenal, Manchester City and Premier League swing weekends: Take nothing for granted

Last week, an American reality-show contestant posted footage of himself in the recovery room of a hospital after an operation. He had tubes in his nose and those woozy, cartoonish eyes of post-anaesthesia.

His loved ones were eager for him to articulate something, but didn’t necessarily expect his first words to be an urgent question requiring urgent action to answer.

“Did Arsenal win?”

Once that sunk in, the next impulse was, “How did Man City do?”

It has been like this for a while now, as it always is when two heavyweights are slugging it out at the top of the table. Try as everyone might to focus only upon themselves and what they can control, the knowledge that a rival team are on a parallel course is permanently relevant. Dominant thought: us. Follow-up thought: them.

There was something particularly gratifying about the most recent round of Premier League matches because — rarely in this televised age, unless they’re facing each other — the two clubs concerned were playing at the same time on the Wednesday night.

Both were locked into a close encounter with one goal in it. Both went through seven minutes of stoppage time. Both were absolutely on the edge — Arsenal leading 1-0 at Brighton & Hove Albion, Manchester City drawing 2-2 at home to Nottingham Forest — until the syncopated sound of the final whistles blown roughly 250 miles apart.

Arsenal’s final whistle came slightly earlier, allowing their supporters the momentary desperation and explosive release when it was confirmed that City, unexpectedly, had dropped points.

There have been an intriguing number of swing weeks for the top two during this Premier League season. In the 29 rounds so far (Arsenal have had an extra game brought forward from the Carabao Cup final weekend later this month, which opponents City will catch up on when the calendar permits), they have matched each other’s result 16 times.

That leaves 13 matchdays with unequal results, and a lurch of momentum toward one or the other. That’s 44 per cent of the time, when one has stumbled, and the other maintained their footing in this race, which just goes to show how compelling it is, and how crazy it feels to have too strong a hunch about what happens down the home straight.

Arsenal currently have the advantage in these swings, as they have benefited from a boost eight times, compared to five in City’s favour.

The Premier League is about to pick up after both Arsenal and City were entangled in the diversions of domestic and European cup competitions since the last round of title punches were thrown just over a week ago.

This weekend, like most, has the potential for these contenders to hope that the distance between them changes.

Fatigued Arsenal host Everton, who are in strong form on their travels, this evening (Saturday). Less than an hour after that one ends, a thoroughly Valverded City play down the road at West Ham United, whose confidence and ambitions have rocketed lately.

But as that recent midweek round of fixtures proved, particularly in that split second that the title vibes hung on Murillo’s breathtaking goal line clearance from Savinho in stoppage time at City, it is foolhardy to be certain that the team at home have it easy, and the ones with a tricky away fixture are more likely to come unstuck.

Take a look at the sides who have tripped the top two up on these swing matchdays: Aston Villa, Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea and Sunderland have gnawed at both. Tottenham Hotspur (twice), Newcastle United and Forest have clawed away at City. Brentford and Wolves have pulled back Arsenal.

That is a decent variety of teams involved, which tells you either the Premier League is extremely competitive this season, or the quality of the top two is inferior. Make of that what you will. It also adds to the feeling that nothing can be taken for granted in the remaining games.

Arsenal and City matched each other pretty well in the first two months of the season, picking up the same points in seven of their first eight games. The tilting moods then became a feature throughout the middle part of the season.

Between Matty Cash’s strike for Villa to defeat City in October and Arsenal succumbing to one of Brentford’s infamously long throws in February, the Premier League pendulum swung 11 times during 18 gameweeks.

Will that continue? If it does at the same rate, that would suggest another three or four gap-changes before the season is out. Or might these two hit a different stride? It is not uncommon to gallop towards the final furlong, something City have done frequently in their decade under Pep Guardiola, and something Arsenal are striving for with the realisation that they have to try to get over the line by any means necessary.

Of course, the ultimate game with swing potential (in either direction) is coming up quite soon: there are only two league matchweeks to be played before Arsenal face City at the Etihad on April 19.