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Amalgamated Financial (AMAL) has drawn fresh attention after reporting fourth quarter revenue that exceeded forecasts, along with record quarterly deposit growth and a 21% dividend increase announced earlier in the year.
See our latest analysis for Amalgamated Financial.
The recent results and dividend move come on top of strong momentum, with a 30 day share price return of 10.58% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 65.20%, while 5 year total shareholder return sits at 174.27%.
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With revenue and earnings meeting or beating expectations, a higher dividend and a share price that sits close to the latest analyst target, the key question now is whether AMAL is still undervalued or if the market is already pricing in future growth.
Compared with the most followed fair value estimate of $42, AMAL’s last close at $42.13 leaves only a small premium. The narrative frames that gap through long term earnings power and capital returns.
Analysts are assuming Amalgamated Financial’s revenue will grow by 12.1% annually over the next 3 years. Analysts expect earnings to reach $147.9 million (and earnings per share of $5.11) by about April 2029, up from $104.4 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
Curious what sits behind that earnings curve and the fair value call? The story leans on steady top line growth, firm margins, and a future earnings multiple that is lower than many peers expect.
Result: Fair Value of $42 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, credit pressure in rent regulated multifamily and consumer solar loans, along with higher deposit costs, could still unsettle earnings and challenge the fair value narrative.
Find out about the key risks to this Amalgamated Financial narrative.
While the analyst narrative calls AMAL roughly fairly priced around $42, our DCF model paints a different picture. On Simply Wall St’s cash flow view, the shares trade at about a 40% discount to an implied value of $70.41, raising a clear question: which story do you think is closer to reality?
