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Astec Industries (ASTE) has caught investor attention after a strong stretch in the share price, with the stock up about 27% over the past month and roughly 42% over the past 3 months.
See our latest analysis for Astec Industries.
Zooming out, the recent 27.4% 1 month share price return and 41.9% 3 month share price return come on top of a 1 year total shareholder return of 76.7%. This suggests that momentum has been building rather than fading.
If Astec’s move has you thinking about where construction and infrastructure demand might ripple next, it could be worth scanning 23 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks as another way to find companies exposed to long term spending on critical assets.
With Astec shares around US$62.09, a value score of 3 and an estimated intrinsic discount of about 27%, the key question is whether the recent surge still leaves room for upside or if the market is already pricing in future growth.
Astec Industries’ most followed fair value narrative sits at about $56.50 per share, which is below the recent close around $62.09. The story behind that gap matters.
The recent acquisition of TerraSource, which delivers high-margin, recurring aftermarket parts revenue (63% of TerraSource revenue; 80% gross margin), is likely to enhance Astec’s consolidated net margins and provide more stable, predictable earnings.
Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.
Want to see what kind of earnings path and profit margin lift would justify that fair value, plus the profit multiple behind it? The full narrative breaks down the revenue runway, margin targets and future valuation math that underpins the current outlook.
Result: Fair Value of $56.50 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, the story could change if U.S. infrastructure funding slows, or if acquisitions like TerraSource fail to deliver the expected margin benefits.
Find out about the key risks to this Astec Industries narrative.
The most followed fair value narrative suggests Astec is about 9.9% overvalued at around $62, yet our DCF model tells a different story, with a fair value estimate of $85.23. That implies the current price sits well below the cash flows our model prices in. Which story do you trust more?
