Find winning stocks in any market cycle. Join 7 million investors using Simply Wall St’s investing ideas for FREE.
Birkenstock Holding (BIRK) has put its latest quarter in focus after reporting double digit revenue growth, driven by holiday demand, broader product reach, and new store openings, while keeping full year 2026 guidance unchanged.
See our latest analysis for Birkenstock Holding.
Despite the strong first quarter update and confirmed 2026 guidance, Birkenstock Holding’s short term momentum has been mixed, with a 3.5% 7 day share price return alongside a 1 year total shareholder return of about 28% decline. This suggests recent optimism sits against a weaker first year for investors.
If this earnings story has you thinking about where else growth might be emerging, take a look at our screener of 23 top founder-led companies as potential next ideas to research.
With analyst targets sitting well above the current US$39.80 share price and the stock still carrying a value score of 5, the key question is whether this gap signals opportunity or if the market already reflects future growth.
The most followed narrative puts Birkenstock Holding’s fair value at $45.35, comfortably above the last close of $39.80, which is framing the current debate.
Although global demand for Birkenstock products is currently strong across regions and younger demographics, the company is already running into production capacity constraints. If factory expansions such as Pasewalk and further cork latex and final assembly investments do not keep pace, revenue growth could be capped relative to current order books and retail sell through.
Want to see how this tension between strong demand and capacity limits shapes the fair value? The narrative leans heavily on revenue growth, margin lift and a lower future earnings multiple. The exact mix of those assumptions is where the story gets interesting.
Result: Fair Value of $45.35 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, if capacity expansions ease supply bottlenecks and investments in owned stores continue to improve efficiency, revenue and margins could surprise on the upside and challenge this cautious view.
Find out about the key risks to this Birkenstock Holding narrative.
If you are not fully aligned with this view or simply prefer to work from the raw numbers yourself, you can build a personalised thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way.