Assessing CNH Industrial (NYSE:CNH) Valuation As Earnings Near And India US Expansion Plans Advance

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CNH Industrial (NYSE:CNH) is drawing fresh attention as investors weigh its upcoming Q4 earnings, with a focus on margin trends and finance operations, along with renewed India to US tractor exports and planned India capacity expansion.

See our latest analysis for CNH Industrial.

Recent trading reflects that attention, with a 30 day share price return of 16.76% and a 90 day return of 30.64%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 1.39% and 3 year total shareholder return of negative 16.85% show that recent momentum has picked up after a weaker stretch.

If CNH Industrial’s recent move has you looking more broadly at industrial and infrastructure themes, it could be a good time to scan 25 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks as another way to source ideas.

With Q4 results, margin trends, and questions about the finance arm all in play, CNH Industrial now trades only slightly below the average analyst target. The key question for investors is whether there is still a buying opportunity, or whether expectations for future growth are already fully reflected in the share price.

CNH Industrial’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at about $12.81, almost in line with the recent $12.75 close. This view places more weight on the earnings and margin story than on short term share price moves.

The integration of advanced connectivity and precision technologies (e.g., the Starlink partnership, FieldOps platform, in house tech stack) positions CNH to capture greater recurring, higher margin revenue streams from software, data, and tech enabled services, supporting net margin and long term earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

If you are curious what kind of revenue mix shift and margin profile would justify that fair value tag, and how far analysts push earnings and multiples to get there, the full narrative spells it out in black and white without requiring you to piece the model together yourself.

Result: Fair Value of $12.81 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, there are still pressure points, including tariff and input cost risks and weaker North American agriculture demand, that could easily knock this fair value case off track.

Find out about the key risks to this CNH Industrial narrative.

While the popular narrative calls CNH Industrial roughly fairly priced at around $12.81, our DCF model presents a very different view. On that basis, the shares at $12.75 sit well above an estimated future cash flow value of $5.89, raising the question of whether earnings-based models are being too generous.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out CNH Industrial for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 53 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If your view on CNH Industrial’s outlook differs, or you simply prefer to test assumptions yourself, you can build a custom take in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your CNH Industrial research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

If CNH Industrial has sparked your interest, do not stop here. The wider market holds plenty of other businesses that might better fit your goals and risk comfort.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include CNH.

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