Saturday, February 28

Assessing OMV (WBAG:OMV) Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum


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OMV (WBAG:OMV) has recently attracted investor attention after a period where the share price showed mixed short term moves, including a small 1 day decline and modest gains in the past week.

Over the past month and past 3 months, OMV’s total return has been positive, while the year to date and 1 year figures also show gains. Longer term 3 year and 5 year total returns are positive as well.

See our latest analysis for OMV.

Despite a small 1 day share price decline, OMV’s €54.8 share price sits on the back of a 10.2% 1 month and 14.9% 3 month share price return, alongside a 43.4% 1 year total shareholder return. This points to momentum having built over time as investors reassess its risk and earnings profile.

If this move in an integrated energy and chemicals group has you thinking more broadly about the sector, it could be a good moment to check out 84 nuclear energy infrastructure stocks as another way to source ideas beyond traditional oil and gas names.

With OMV trading at €54.8, above an average analyst price target of €51.46 but sitting on a 57% estimated intrinsic discount, you have to ask: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is future growth already priced in?

OMV’s narrative fair value of €50 sits below the current €54.8 share price, which puts the spotlight on how the long term transformation story is framed.

OMV is evolving from a traditional oil and gas company into a global leader in sustainable energy and materials. Its investments in circular economy solutions and renewable technologies align with long term market trends. If the company executes its strategy effectively, it could offer significant growth potential over the next 5 to 10 years.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what justifies that gap between today’s price and the fair value Nenad sees, the narrative leans heavily on earnings power, margin resilience and a future profit multiple that reflects a business mix less tied to crude cycles. The exact assumptions sit under the hood, and they are what really drive that €50 number.

Result: Fair Value of €50 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, that story can come under pressure if oil and gas price volatility affects cash flows, or if large transition projects face delays, cost overruns or regulatory setbacks.

Find out about the key risks to this OMV narrative.

While the narrative fair value suggests OMV is 9.6% overvalued at €54.8, our DCF model points in the opposite direction, indicating the shares trade at a 57.3% discount to an estimated future cash flow value of €128.43. This raises the question of which story is more persuasive: sentiment or cash flows?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

OMV Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026
OMV Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out OMV for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 220 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If this mix of signals leaves you unsure, it is worth acting soon to review the full picture yourself, especially the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

If OMV has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Use the screener to quickly surface other opportunities that could fit your goals just as well.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include OMV.VI.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com



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