Monday, February 23

Assessing Walt Disney (DIS) Valuation As Mixed Returns Contrast With ESPN Growth Hopes


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Walt Disney (DIS) has been trading around $105.58, with a mixed return profile that includes a small 1 day decline and a modest gain over the past 3 months, alongside weaker year to date and 1 year results.

See our latest analysis for Walt Disney.

At around $105.58, Walt Disney’s recent share price moves show fading short term momentum, with a 30 day share price return of a 4.87% decline, contrasting with a 3.57% gain over 90 days and a 3 year total shareholder return of 7.74%.

If this has you thinking about where else growth stories might emerge around media, content and technology, our screener of 22 top founder-led companies is a useful next stop.

With revenue of US$95.7b, net income of US$12.3b, and the share price sitting around US$105, the key question is whether Disney is quietly undervalued or if the market is already banking on future growth.

Against a last close of $105.58, the most followed narrative, according to Cashflow_Queen, points to a fair value of $131.50, which frames Disney as meaningfully undervalued on that view.

ESPN remains the most valuable live sports platform, and its evolving partnership with the NFL is a game-changer. Exclusive rights, expanded streaming packages, and the launch of ESPN Unlimited could make Disney the default home for professional football. The NFL partnership extends beyond linear broadcasts to streaming exclusives, international rights, and integrated advertising packages, creating enormous revenue upside. By leveraging the NFL brand, Disney can accelerate ESPN’s subscriber growth, command premium ad pricing, and entrench its dominance in live sports.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what has to happen across streaming, ESPN and the parks business to justify that price tag? The narrative leans on higher margins, steady revenue compounding and a richer earnings multiple than the market is giving today. Want to see how those moving parts fit together into that $131.50 figure?

Result: Fair Value of $131.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on ESPN managing rising sports rights costs and on parks holding up if discretionary travel or consumer spending softens.

Find out about the key risks to this Walt Disney narrative.

Our DCF model takes a more conservative stance than the ESPN bull case. At around $105.58, Walt Disney is trading a little above our future cash flow estimate of $102.14, which points to a small premium rather than clear upside. So, is this price just cautious optimism or early overpayment?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

DIS Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026
DIS Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Walt Disney for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 54 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If the mixed signals here appear to balance caution and optimism, this is a good time to review the numbers yourself and act with conviction, starting with 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

If Disney sits in the “maybe” bucket for you, do not stop there. Broaden your watchlist now and give yourself more options before the next move.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include DIS.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com



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