Aston Villa live on the edge.
After Sunday’s 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest, they remain fourth and are well placed to finish in the top five and secure a Champions League spot, sitting seven points clear of sixth-placed Chelsea. But a +5 goal difference after 32 games shows how often they scrape through tight matches.
That ruthless efficiency delivered their biggest result of the season last Thursday, when Unai Emery’s side beat Bologna 3-1 in the first leg of their Europa League quarter-final. The Italians were the better side for long stretches, but Villa punished slack defending from corners to take control of the tie.
At the City Ground, though, the downsides of Villa’s fine-margin approach were evident.
Inside half an hour, they took that reputation for making the most of their opportunities to its extreme, and were 1-0 up without a shot on target, thanks to a Murillo own goal.
But after Forest equalised, the game settled into an even contest, with Villa never really exerting sustained pressure. Morgan Rogers missed a glorious chance at 1-1, blazing over from close range after Matz Sels parried a Ross Barkley effort, but the graphic below shows how little there was to split the sides.
The expected goals read 1.0 for Villa and 1.2 for Forest, and close-run games like this have been a common theme this season. The graphic below shows that, after recovering from a slow start that saw them winless in their first five league games, Villa’s rolling 10-game expected goals for has closely tracked their expected goals against.
This expected goals balance has been used as a stick with which to beat Villa, an indication that their league position is undeserved. But, as ever, there is a deeper context here and a clearer picture emerges when their expected goal difference is split by game state — that is, when Villa are winning, drawing or losing.
When trailing, Villa out-create opponents by 0.69 expected goals per 90, the third-highest figure in the league behind Manchester United and Arsenal. They can shift gears when needed, yet are generally content to sit off and pick their moments when drawing or ahead, an approach that has served them well under Emery.
But that same approach is also why they were never really title contenders, despite being three points off the lead after beating Arsenal 2-1 in December. With the exception of Leicester City’s improbable Premier League triumph in 2015-16, champions tend to impose themselves, especially against weaker sides, rather than cling to a single-goal lead.
There are mitigating factors for Villa, not least fatigue from their European excursions. Forest also played in the Europa League on Thursday, drawing 1-1 away to Porto, but Vitor Pereira’s side are prioritising their relegation battle and made nine changes from a largely second-string team. Villa, by contrast, are treating both competitions equally, making just three changes, one enforced after Emiliano Martinez picked up a calf injury in the warm-up.
Villa have largely avoided European hangovers this season, winning nine of their 12 matches following Europa League games, but fatigue is cumulative. With 46 games played in all competitions and a squad stretched by injuries, it has begun to show. Nowhere is this more evident than in attacking midfielder Morgan Rogers, who has played a part in all of those matches.
Rogers linked up brilliantly with Lucas Digne in the first half, their combination leading to the opening goal as his cross was turned in by the unfortunate Murillo. After the break, he faded, lacking the split-second sharpness that has made him Villa’s attacking fulcrum.
He has just one goal contribution since February — a strike against Bournemouth — and it is no coincidence that Villa have won only two of their past 10 league games in that time. Emery said after the game that Rogers “needs some rest”, but Villa are a finely-calibrated machine that requires every part, including Rogers, to be firing on all cylinders.
Emery’s mastery of tightrope matches helps explain his reputation as a cup specialist. The Spaniard has won five Europa League titles with Sevilla and Villarreal, and would secure his status as a Villa legend by repeating that feat. Cup ties tend to become cagey, low-scoring affairs, and his sides are well versed in managing their ebbs and flows after playing out similar games week after week.
Cup matches are about fine margins, league dominance is about sustaining a consistent level of performance over 38 games. Villa’s more restrained approach leaves them more susceptible to the whims of fortune; relying on edging close-contests is not a reliable way to win titles.
At the moment, it has them limping towards Champions League qualification.
Given the inconsistency of the chasing pack, and their status as favourites in the Europa League, Villa are likely to return to Europe’s top table next season. If they want to broaden their ambitions, a more proactive, attack-minded approach will be required.