All year long, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down each Atlanta Hawks weekday matchup, while providing best bets along the way. We have already generated more than 20 units of profit this season, all 100% free, but the job is far from over.
On Friday night, the Hawks had another miserable showing with a 126-111 loss to the Miami Heat. They were completely dominated on the inside, with a -10 rebound differential, 21 turnovers to Miami’s 10, and once again wilted late in the fourth quarter. Trae Young had a 30-point night, while Jalen Johnson posted a 24/10/9 stat line, but the lack of efficiency from the Hawks’ offense continues to be a problem. They were manhandled by a Heat team missing Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro for their fifth loss in a row.
From a betting perspective, we went 1-1. The Hawks failed to cover the -3.5 point spread at home against a banged-up Heat side, but we did correctly identify that Kel’el Ware would have a big game in the paint. Ware ticked over his 12.5 rebound mark, allowing us to preserve our profits for another day.
Doc’s Sports offers NBA expert picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.
On Saturday night, the Hawks lost a sixth straight game, falling to the Knicks 128-125. Jalen Johnson flirted with a triple double, Onyeka Okongwu had a big night with 30 points, but defense remained a concern for the Hawks. Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson combined for 70 points, and the Hawks were outrebounded by 18 in the defeat. That is now six straight losses for Atlanta, the longest active losing streak in the NBA. To make things worse, five of those losses were at home, with the only other being a road loss to the lowly Charlotte Hornets.
Tonight, things are unlikely to get any better as the Hawks (15-18) head to Oklahoma City (27-5) to take on the Thunder. The Thunder are no longer knocking on the door of history with a 6-4 record in their last 10 games, but they are still far and away the best team in the league. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is locked in a two-horse race with Nikola Jokic for the NBA MVP, OKC has a legitimate rotation of 10 or 11 players, and oh yeah, they won the NBA championship last season with the best regular-season record. The Thunder have the best defensive rating in the league, the 5th best offense, and their incredibly deep bench allows them to stay fresh over the grueling 82-game season. The fact that they are on the second night of a back-to-back would usually help level the playing field, but a blowout win over the 76ers allowed Mark Daigneault to rest his stars in the second half.
Before we get into how the Thunder will beat up on the Hawks tonight, we have to dig deeper into what is wrong in Atlanta. The Hawks went 13-10 during Trae Young’s two-month absence, and the return of their All-Star guard was supposed to turn this team from good to great. Instead, the Hawks have lost six games in a row since Young’s return. This includes a road game against the 11-20 Hornets, and four home losses against the Bulls (2x), Heat, and Knicks. Atlanta was favored in four of these five contests, yet they were unable to get the job done and give Young his first taste of victory in months.
There is no denying the impact Trae Young has on the Hawks’ defense, but it has been really hard for them to buckle down on defense. They have allowed at least 126 points in all five games that Young has appeared in, averaging 133 PPG allowed in that span. Young’s defense has always been a concern, but it has gotten even worse as he tries to get back up to game speed after his time off. His footwork has been slow, his conditioning still needs work, and while the effort is there, teams have learned to attack him whenever possible on that end of the court. It isn’t time to throw in the towel with the Hawks’ best player over the last half-decade, but time is running out for the Hawks to capitalize on their promising start to the season. Their recent skid has them on the edge of the play-in tournament, just one game ahead of the 11th-place Milwaukee Bucks.
Tonight’s matchup features the best team in the league facing off against the team with the longest active losing streak in the NBA. The Thunder’s injury report has yet to be released, but there is no reason to expect any surprises tonight. Dyson Daniels will be tasked with slowing down Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jalen Johnson will be on Chet Holmgren, allowing the Hawks to match up nicely against the Thunder’s best scorers. Slowing down the reigning MVP will be the Hawks’ primary focus, but what makes the Thunder such a difficult team to handle is their ability to score up and down the roster. If Atlanta focuses on slowing down their top players, the Thunder will happily allow its role players to carry a bulk of the scoring load. Their deep bench allows them to stay incredibly active on defense, with quick rotation and plenty of energy.
Tonight’s matchup will not be fun for the Hawks, and this could quickly get out of hand. The Thunder are 15-1 at home this year, and are mammoth -16.5 point favorites over the Hawks. The massive point spread is easily justifiable, as the gap in class on the defensive end between these two teams is apparent. The Hawks can’t even slow down the lowly Hornets, while the Thunder consistently clamp down on the league’s best offenses. We won’t be touching the lopsided moneyline prices, nor does the spread interest me. The Hawks are overdue to have a good game, but expecting them to snap out of their funk enough to even keep this one close is a tall task. Oklahoma City’s last six wins have all come by 16+ points, as this team can easily blow anyone out when they are on their game.
Instead, we will look into the player prop market. Jalen Williams has caught my eye, as he will spend lots of time across from Trae Young on the offensive end of the court. Young is not going to start playing solid defense anytime soon, and with Daniels draped on Gilgeous-Alexander, that leaves Young exposed. Williams is a lethal scorer who has had a slightly down season since returning from an off-season injury. His 17.3 PPG, 45% field goal percentage, and 34.2% clip from deep are all career lows. However, he is still a productive member of this offense, and the third option when Holmgren and Gilgeous-Alexander need a break. Young is happy to allow easy buckets in the open court, and Williams will just need to hit his shots to clear the 18.5 point line available tonight. While that is a solid pick, we will get a bit greedy and take 20+ points at +110 odds instead. It is unlikely he finishes with exactly 19 points, and turning -110 into +110 makes it a worthwhile gamble.
For the second pick of the night, we will take Trae Young to collect at least one steal at -160 odds. Young has logged a steal in four of his five games since his return from injury, and this is a great price on him to do so tonight. The Thunder do a good job at taking care of the basketball, but Young knows he needs maximum effort on defense if the Hawks have any chance of snapping their losing streak.
Pick: Jalen Williams 20+ Points 4 Units +110
Pick: Trae Young Over 0.5 Steals 2 Units -160
2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 5-4
Spread: 13-11
Total: 1-6
Player Props: 21-8
Overall: 40-29
Total Units: Up 24.8 Units
Get NBA picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.