CBS Sports this season has unleashed a new method behind our NCAA men’s basketball tournament bracket projections, and while we release the daily seeded field and bubble here every morning, we’ve unearthed so many more data points that tell the story of what will happen on Selection Sunday well in advance. And on this, the last day before March, we get a weekend packed with storylines coming from a slate of great games on CBS.
Let’s take a look at these four key games, where the teams playing them currently stand and how things could play out in the final two weeks of the season:
San Diego State at New Mexico
Saturday, 2 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App, Paramount+ Premium
It’s a “double bubble” matchup between two teams right on the fringes of at-large candidacy, but there’s another key element behind this game. Utah State (23-5, 13-4 MWC), which already has a solid at-large candidacy, is our SportsLine prediction model pick to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament (36% chance).
San Diego State (19-8, 13-4) has the tiebreaker on Utah State, while New Mexico (21-7, 12-5) is in third — meaning they’d face the Aggies in the semifinals in the current seed list. The Lobos already lost by 20 at home to Utah State and close their season on the road against the Aggies.
Our current projection has San Diego State in as the league’s autobid, while New Mexico is among the first teams out. But neither of these teams should rely on that autobid, and both would be well served to win as many remaining games as possible before a potential MWC championship game against Utah State.
Bracketology: No. 1 seeds Duke, Arizona face battles but have margin for error in NCAA Tournament projection
David Cobb
Texas Tech at Iowa State
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App, Paramount+ Premium
The NCAA Tournament committee told us in a recent mock selection process that no number is more important to a team’s seeding than Wins Above Bubble, which measures how strong a team’s résumé really is. That doesn’t look great today for Iowa State‘s argument against UConn for the fourth No. 1 seed in this field.
The Huskies are fourth in WAB, while the Cyclones are ninth. But Iowa State has a much tougher schedule (at Arizona is next) and can make up almost all of that ground if both teams win out. While UConn is projected to still be fourth in that scenario, Iowa State would move up to fifth and have more Quadrant 1 wins and a better NET ranking and likely maintain its higher position in predictive metrics. The Cyclones still probably need a hiccup from UConn and none of their own, but the path is clearer now that Houston and Purdue have fumbled.
On the Texas Tech side, this game is important because they are attempting to prove they still deserve to be seeded strongly despite the injury to reigning Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin. Our SportsLine simulations have dinged Tech for that injury, but the Red Raiders close the season with this game and another road test against BYU sandwiched around a home game against TCU, and those plus the Big 12 tournament afford them plenty of chances to prove their ability without Toppin.
Purdue at Ohio State
Sunday, 1:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App, Paramount+ Premium
Michigan State at Indiana
Sunday, 3:45 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App, Paramount+ Premium
While Purdue and Michigan State are part of a pack of teams that will fill out the No. 2-5 seed lines, the really interesting thing here with CBS Sports’ Big Ten Conference doubleheader is actually the two home teams and how they intertwine. Ohio State and Indiana both took tough losses this week that knocked them out of our bracket, but wins on Sunday would put them right back either in or on the cusp.
Furthermore, they close the season against each other next weekend (with relatively soft mid-week opponents in between). If Ohio State and Indiana both can win Sunday at home, there’s a very good chance that next weekend’s winner will reach March Madness, while the loser will need a stunning run in the Big Ten Tournament to make the field.
Here’s how we project the result of this weekend’s games will impact their standing as at-large candidates:
| Team | Current | W/Win | W/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | 35.6% | 40.4% | 17.9% |
| Indiana | 22.3% | 37.1% | 17.6% |
And if you are wondering, the SportsLine model gives the Buckeyes a 64% chance to win that season finale at home.