The Toronto Raptors are heading back to the city that haunted them last decade.
The Cleveland Cavaliers ended the Raptors’ season in three consecutive playoffs, from 2016-18. In those series, the Raptors went 0-12 in Cleveland. They will need to change that to win this series — obviously.
Of course, these teams have nothing in common with those except the team names and the color schemes. LeBron James, who tormented the Raptors across those series, is in Los Angeles. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan (and their younger supporting cast) have dispersed across the league, too, leaving Toronto.
Instead, we get Donovan Mitchell and Scottie Barnes, James Harden and Brandon Ingram. The Cavaliers have the star power, and their explosiveness will test the Raptors’ defensive identity. Here’s your first look at the series.
What is the biggest storyline for my team headed into the playoffs?
Eric Koreen, covering the Raptors: Can the Raptors hold up against top-level competition? They took care of the league’s worst teams, going 22-6 against teams that didn’t qualify for the postseason. They went 19-8 against the Hawks plus the Play-In Tournament field. Against the Western Conference’s top six and the East’s top four — the teams most people would consider the best 10 in the league — the Raptors went 5-22. Three of those wins came against the Cavaliers, but those all came in the first month of the year. One of them featured Cleveland’s skeleton crew.
In particular, the Raptors offense was an issue against the league’s best teams. On paper, it will be tough for them to keep up with the dynamic Cavaliers.
Joe Vardon, covering the Cavaliers: Where does it all end? I mean, sure, that’s the overriding question for all 16 playoff teams, but this iteration of the Cavs – with Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, have never made it past the second round. The general feeling outside of the team is Cleveland has to reach the conference finals to avoid a substantial shakeup. And, by the way, if this sounds like a familiar storyline, that’s because it is. When J.B. Bickerstaff went 0-for-3 in making it past the second round as Cavs coach, he was fired. Would the axe fall on Kenny Atkinson if they fail again? I’d rather not speculate on any specifics. The changes could be broader than that if a roster that is the most expensive in the NBA can’t win two playoff series. If Cleveland loses this series … whoa boy. The team might fire the ball boys.
Who or what is the biggest X-factor for my team?
Koreen: Immanuel Quickley. The Raptors are short on shooting for a playoff team. Among teams that advanced to the playoffs without the help of the Play-In, only the Pistons hit fewer 3s per possession than the Raptors, while no team shot a lower percentage. Quickley is by far the Raptors’ most dangerous shot off of movement. They could use getting on a roll from deep against the high-powered Cavaliers.
However, he left Sunday’s finale with hamstring tightness. He only returned from an eight-game absence due to plantar fasciitis on Tuesday. It’s unclear what kind of shape he will be in against Cleveland. The Raptors need him, if only to space the floor.
Vardon: Oh, geez, how do you pick an X-factor when there are so many players the Cavs rely on who have either struggled to stay healthy – or compete – in the playoffs? Dean Wade, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley come to mind. The Cavs love their lineup with Wade, Allen and Mobley starting together, but can Wade stay healthy to remain on the floor? Can he shoot well enough from the outside? Allen has a balky knee. Will he be ready to go? I could throw out a couple of other names, newcomers to the team like Dennis Schröder or Keon Ellis, as potential X-factors. But I am sticking with Wade. He is a 6-10 forward who can guard much smaller. If he’s right, I think the Cavs are a tough out.
One trend I’m watching heading into this matchup is…
Koreen: Turnovers. Even if the Raptors shoot better than normal, the Cavaliers will all but certainly shoot better than them from the field. The Raptors, then, need more possessions, and easier possessions. They will need to create turnovers for that to happen.
The Cavaliers were above-average at protecting the ball this year. However, Donovan Mitchell turned the ball over nine times in two games against Toronto’s hellacious ball pressure. Only the Pistons, Suns and Thunder forced turnovers at a greater per-possession rate than the Raptors did this year. For Toronto to have a hope in this series, they need to win this battle.
Vardon: Where are the Cavs defensively? If Wade is out there and healthy, and Allen is playing at 100 percent, it’s a good start. But what about James Harden? Does he defend in the playoffs? He is a much bigger guard than Darius Garland, who was targeted habitually by opponents in playoff series. Harden is a big body who, when he wants to, can be hard to move off the block or his spot, but he is also … an energy conserver during the regular season on defense. Atkinson complained about the Cavs defense a bunch down the stretch, and called out “veterans,” including Mobley, but if you watch this team and look for the player who isn’t hustling out to defend corner 3s, isn’t helping or making the extra rotation, well … it wasn’t Mobley. Anyway, let’s see if this offensive juggernaut can guard anyone.
The matchup I’ll be watching the closest is…
Koreen: Donovan Mitchell and James Harden versus whoever guards them. Scottie Barnes will likely guard one of these players — probably the stronger, bigger Harden. If Raptors coach Darko Rajaković sticks with his normal starting five, RJ Barrett will probably get the Mitchell assignment to begin the series. Quickley is too banged up to deal with the quick-twitch Mitchell, while Brandon Ingram at least has the height to help Jakob Poeltl on the glass, making him a more natural fit on Evan Mobley. However, Mitchell will have a huge quickness advantage on Barrett.
The Raptors have more options off the bench for Mitchell, with guards Jamal Shead, Ja’Kobe Walter and maybe even rookie defender extraordinaire Collin Murray-Boyles getting a crack.
Vardon: I am watching Scottie Barnes and Evan Mobley. I think there is a rivalry there – certainly on Cleveland’s side, where there is still scoffing over Barnes winning Rookie of the Year over Mobley in 2022. I wonder if there was eye rolling in Toronto when Mobley won Defensive Player of the Year last year. Either way, these two are going to see a lot of each other, and really, both have a chance to prove they are, beyond a doubt, the cornerstone of their franchise’s present and future. Dare I say, if either of them flops in this series, and their team loses, then the opposite is true?
Series prediction
Koreen: Cavaliers in 6. I don’t put much stock in the Raptors’ three-game series sweep against Cleveland this year. It happened so long ago that it barely matters, especially with the James Harden trade changing the dynamic of the team. I think the Raptors have enough length and strength to give Cleveland’s guards some trouble. However, they just don’t have the shooting to get to 120 regularly, which will probably be what it will take in most of these games.
Vardon: To be honest, I was not prepared for this outcome. I am stunned the Cavs aren’t facing Atlanta, who I thought would give them all sorts of trouble. When it comes to Cleveland in the playoffs overall, I would have to say I am fascinated – more so than I have been at the start of any playoff run since probably 2017. The Cavs are so talented, and deep, and … flawed. They could get to the finals or lose this series. The Quickley injury is a red flag for me. I’ll take Cleveland in this series, in six games, because that’s what you say when you think one team is definitely going to win but you either respect the opponent or aren’t wild about the team you’re picking. Let’s see if the version of the Cavs capable of reaching the finals shows up for this series.