The first round of the 2026 NBA playoffs starts in less than two weeks, and yet it’s still possible for the Boston Celtics to play one of six teams in their opening series.
The Celtics have not yet secured the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference standings, but they are heavy favorites to do so at some point. The C’s have a three-game lead over the New York Knicks for second place, and every analytics model projects Boston to hold onto that No. 2 seed.
So, if we assume the Celtics will finish with the No. 2 seed, that means they would play the No. 7 seed in Round 1 of the postseason. The No. 7 seed team will be determined by the winner of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in tournament game.
Right now, according to Basketball Reference’s model, the Philadelphia 76ers are the most likely team to finish as the No. 7 seed.
The Atlanta Hawks have the lowest odds of finishing in the No. 7 spot at 3.1 percent.
Let’s look at the six teams that could mathematically finish as the No. 7 seed and play the Celtics in the first round.
Atlanta Hawks
- Record, seed (as of April 6): 45-33, 5th
- Head-to-head record vs. Celtics: 2-2
- Remaining schedule: vs. NYK, at CLE, vs. CLE, at MIA
The Hawks have a two-game lead over the teams in the play-in tournament spots. They’ve won four straight games and eight of their last 10. Atlanta’s 19-3 record post-All Star break is the third-best in the league. The Hawks also have scored the fourth-most points per game (122.0) during that span.
They beat the Celtics 112-102 in Atlanta last week, although Jayson Tatum didn’t play in that game. These teams split the season series 2-2.
The Hawks are no joke. Jalen Johnson is having an All-NBA caliber season and nearly averaging a triple-double. They have a deep roster of good players and Quin Snyder is one of the league’s best head coaches.
The Celtics obviously would be favored in any playoff series against the Hawks, but it wouldn’t be an easy matchup. Atlanta could win a game or two.
Our Postgame Live crew breaks down the Celtics’ 112-102 loss to the Atlanta Hawks
Philadelphia 76ers
- Record, seed (as of April 6: 43-35, 6th
- Head-to-head record vs. Celtics: 2-2
- Remaining schedule: at SAS, at HOU, at IND, vs. MIL
The 76ers have always disappointed their fans in the playoffs despite having some immensely talented players over the last 10 years. So it’s hard to pick them to make a deep playoff run, or even win a single round. But right now they are healthier than any other point in the season with Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and Joel Embiid able to play. That’s a pretty good trio — when injuries aren’t forcing one or more of them to miss games.
The Sixers are 24-13 when Embiid plays this season. If the 76ers have their full squad come playoff time, they could give one of the top seeds some headaches in Round 1.
The Celtics beat Embiid’s 76ers in the playoffs in 2018, 2020 and 2023. It’s one of the league’s best rivalries, and a first-round series would be a lot of fun.
Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
Kyle Ross-Imagn Images Joel Embiid is 0-3 in playoff series vs. the Celtics in his career.
Toronto Raptors
- Record, seed (as of April 6): 43-35, 7th
- Head-to-head record vs. Celtics: 0-4
- Remaining schedule: vs. MIA, vs. MIA, at NYK, vs. BKN
The Raptors are probably the most favorable first-round matchup for the Celtics. Toronto lacks elite star power and its best players do not have a wealth of postseason experience.
The C’s swept the season series with an average margin of victory of 11.5 points. The Raptors are 4-6 in their last 10 games and they are 1-9 against the Celtics, Pistons and Knicks combined this season.
Charlotte Hornets
- Record, seed (as of April 6): 43-36, 8th
- Head-to-head record vs. Celtics: 1-1
- Remaining schedule: at BOS, vs. DET, at NYK
The Hornets beat the Celtics by 29 points at TD Garden on March 4. It was arguably Boston’s worst loss of the season. The C’s returned the favor with a 15-point win in Charlotte on March 29. These teams conclude their season series Tuesday in Boston.
Charlotte would not be an easy first-round matchup. Since Jan. 1, the Hornets are 32-14 and rank No. 6 in points per game, No. 1 in 3-point percentage, No. 3 in rebounds per game, No. 1 in offensive rating and No. 3 in defensive rating.
Any team that shoots 3-pointers as well as the Hornets is a threat. And they’re well coached with former Celtics assistant Charles Lee running the show. The primary concern for the Hornets is inexperience. It’s a very young roster with almost no playoff experience.
Our Postgame Live crew breaks down the Celtics’ win over the Charlotte Hornets
Orlando Magic
- Record, seed (as of April 6: 42-36, 9th
- Head-to-head record vs. Celtics: 1-2
- Remaining schedule: vs. DET, vs. MIN, at CHI, at BOS
The Magic were a trendy pick before the season to take a massive step in their development. It made sense, too. Orlando has several exciting young players and provided a tougher-than-expected challenge to the Celtics in the first round of the 2025 playoffs.
The Magic have not taken that next step so far this season. Injuries have played a factor. Franz Wagner has missed more than half the season. Jalen Suggs has only played in 53 games. Paolo Banchero has missed 10 games.
The Magic are healthy right now, though, and they do have a very talented starting five of Banchero, Wagner, Desmond Bane, Suggs and Wendell Carter Jr.
Orlando plays hard and won’t be scared of Boston after last season’s playoff experience. But it’s still hard to imagine the Magic winning more than one game versus the C’s in a best-of-seven series.
Miami Heat
- Record, seed (as of April 6): 41-37, 10th
- Head-to-head record vs. Celtics: 0-4
- Remaining schedule: at TOR, at TOR, at WSH, vs. ATL
The Heat are limping to the play-in tournament with just three wins in their last 11 games. One of those games was a 147-129 loss to the Celtics in Miami on April 1. They went 0-4 against the Celtics this season with an average margin of defeat of 9.5 points.
Not many play-in tournament teams have been competitive since this format was introduced in 2022. The exception was the 2023 Heat team that beat the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals and reached the NBA Finals as a No. 8 seed.
This year’s Heat is nowhere close to being as talented or as deep as that 2023 roster.
Miami ranks 21st in defensive rating since the All-Star break and has given up 120-plus points 10 times in the last 13 games. The Heat would be one of the easiest first-round matchups for the Celtics.