Boxing fans claim that styles make fights, but matchups in all sports have always dictated how a particular contest will unfold.
We have a great NBA example on Tuesday when the Celtics visit the Jazz as 7-point favorites with a total of 240 points.
Boston has had an outstanding season, currently holding the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, despite playing without its injured star, Jayson Tatum. The main reason for that is an elite offense.
In fact, as play-by-play broadcaster Sean Grande recently shared on X, the Celtics held the third-most efficient offense in NBA history entering Sunday’s game. The performance splits are more favorable at home, but their road rating is still quite impressive.
Along those lines, as I have previously mentioned in this space, Utah is much more dynamic at home. The Jazz’s offensive rating ranks eighth at home but 23rd on the road. That is the main reason Utah is 12-6 against the spread (ATS) in home games.
Obviously, opponents are challenged by the altitude during a road trip. That has routinely occurred in Utah (and Denver) home games over the years, but the offensive splits are never this one-sided.
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In terms of styles, this matchup also favors a high-scoring game. In home games, Utah plays with the second-fastest pace in the entire NBA — which is even faster in the first half. Boston is not among the fastest, but it’s a much more respectable pace in the first half, as opposed to the second half.
Jaylen Brown and the Celtics will be able to maintain pace because of Utah’s poor defense. The Jazz rank 29th in defensive efficiency and that is the same for both home and road games. Couple that with a strong offense at home, and that is why 13 of their 18 home games have gone over the total.
I have an 85-73-2 ATS record in this Post sports section, and my next play is Over the first-half total.
The Pick: Over 123.5 points (-108, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.