The league phase of the Champions League delivered a breathless final matchday in the new format, with all 36 teams playing simultaneously. Goals flew in across the continent as the table lurched with every refresh, and even a goalkeeper ended up on the scoresheet.
With the league positions settled, eight teams have qualified directly for the last 16, while 16 others head into the play-offs to fight for the eight remaining knockout spots.
Champions Paris Saint-Germain are in the play-offs. So are Real Madrid, the kings of this competition, and several league champions from across Europe.
At the other end, teams like Newcastle and Qarabag are preparing for their first-ever Champions League play-off matches. The play-offs set up two fascinating legs and, with the qualification scenarios now straightforward, The Athletic takes a look at five ties and the key numbers likely to shape them.
1. Galatasaray v Juventus
Kenan Yildiz is the second-youngest player to reach double figures for both chances created (12) and completed dribbles (16) in this season’s Champions League, behind only Lamine Yamal (18).
Born in Regensburg, Yildiz joined Bayern Munich’s academy at seven before leaving on a free transfer to Juventus in 2022. Eligible for Germany and Turkey, he chose Turkey internationally and now heads to RAMS Park to face the Turkish champions with the stage set for him.
Yildiz is central to everything Juventus produce going forward. In Europe, no player from an Italian club has more assists this season (three). In Serie A, only Lautaro Martinez (14) has more goals than him (eight). He ranks in the top five for combined goals and assists, chances created, passes into the final third and passes into the box, while completing the most dribbles in the league (49) and hitting the woodwork five times, more than anyone else.
It is an early indication of his creativity, ball-carrying and ball-progression prowess at such a young age. No wonder Juventus moved quickly to extend his contract until 2030. He is the cornerstone of their project.
Galatasaray’s main threat is Victor Osimhen, who knows Juve from his time at Napoli and has scored six goals in six Champions League appearances this season; only Burak Yilmaz, with eight in 2012-13, has scored more for Galatasaray in a single campaign.
They remain unbeaten at home against Italian opposition in the Champions League (W5 D3) and have lost just one of six previous meetings with Juventus (W2 D3), winning the most recent 1-0 in December 2013.
2. Borussia Dortmund v Atalanta
Charles de Ketelaere has been directly involved in 13 goals in 17 Champions League appearances for Atalanta (six goals, seven assists). That leaves him one short of overtaking Mario Pasalic as the club’s all-time leader in the competition.
Atalanta lean on him to create and carry attacks forward, and his dribbling has become a bigger weapon this season. Eighty per cent of his touches in this Champions League campaign have come under high-intensity pressure, the highest share among attacking midfielders and wingers, and only Kylian Mbappe (22) has created more chances in those situations than De Ketelaere (20).
But he is expected to miss this tie with a partial tear of the internal meniscus in his right knee, suffered in warm-up drills, and is not due back until mid-March. That ability to receive and create under duress would have been invaluable against a Dortmund side whose pressing is one of its biggest strengths.
In his absence, Lazar Samardzic and Giacomo Raspadori are likely to step into his position and take on more of the creative load. Atalanta are also missing other major pieces of their attack: striker Gianluca Scamacca is out injured, and Ademola Lookman left for Atletico Madrid in January. It is a lot of production to replace.
Atalanta’s vulnerabilities at the back could be just as decisive. No side has conceded more Champions League goals from defensive errors this season (five), and Dortmund are well placed to punish any hesitation with their pressure and speed of transition.
Serhou Guirassy is exactly the kind of finisher who can turn those moments into goals: he has scored with 29 per cent of his shots in the competition since his Champions League debut in October 2020 (18 goals from 62 attempts), the best rate of any player with 50 or more attempts.
3. Monaco v Paris Saint-Germain
Monaco are unbeaten in their past four Champions League home matches (W1 D3), keeping a clean sheet in each of the past three. They have gone 315 minutes without conceding at the Stade Louis II since Erling Haaland’s goal there in October.
The defensive record is strong, but the attack is misfiring. Monaco have the largest negative expected-goals differential in the competition (-6.5), scoring eight times from 14.5 expected goals, the fewest goals of all the qualified teams.
Maghnes Akliouche, 23, has played the most minutes for Monaco this season (1,614) and scored four goals domestically, with only Ansu Fati (seven) ahead of him, but he has been toothless in Europe. He carries the highest expected-goals total of any player yet to score in this season’s Champions League (3.0), with 25 shots without finding the net, both competition highs. Monaco will need him to reproduce his domestic form on this stage.
Folarin Balogun, their top scorer in the competition with three goals, offers the likeliest route to goal in the meantime, and he has scored in two of his past four appearances against PSG in all competitions.
The sides have never met in European competition. Monaco’s only major European tie against French opposition ended in a 3-2 aggregate defeat to Marseille in the 1998-99 UEFA Cup round of 16, while PSG won both of theirs, including a 10-0 aggregate win over Brest.
Folarin Balogun celebrates after scoring against Galatasaray in December (Valery HACHE / AFP via Getty Images)
4. Benfica v Real Madrid
Benfica and Real Madrid have each scored four Champions League goals from direct attacks this season, more than any other side. Madrid lead the competition for direct attacks (29; 3.6 per game) and Benfica are close behind (17; 2.1 per game). For both, the route is clear: play forward early and attack space before the defence can reset.
Madrid are also ruthlessly efficient when they win the ball high. They rank first for the share of high turnovers that end in a shot, turning 31 per cent of regains (18 of 58) into attempts despite ranking only 22nd for high turnovers overall. It is a team built on moments, and the Mbappe-Vinicius Junior partnership has come to define them: they have combined to create 19 chances in the Champions League this season, more than any other duo (Mbappe for Vinicius: 10; Vinicius for Mbappe: nine).
But there is a soft edge, too. Across their past 11 Champions League matches, Madrid have lost six and won five, and only Bodo/Glimt (15) have conceded more shots from errors than Madrid (13) this season. Benfica, coached by Jose Mourinho, will try to make that the point of the tie by controlling the game out of possession, hurrying Madrid’s decisions and turning every loose touch into a chance to attack a defence that is not set.
They already have a template, and it came wrapped in league-phase chaos. Benfica’s 4-2 win in January was sealed by a last-gasp 98th-minute winner from goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin, one of the competition’s most surreal finishes. It was also Mourinho’s first victory over Madrid in six attempts. The match cost Madrid an automatic last-16 spot, and it showed how this matchup can tilt: Benfica had only 33 per cent possession but took 22 shots and created eight big chances.
History leans Benfica’s way, too. They have won three of their four European Cup/Champions League ties against Madrid, and when Benfica beat Spanish sides at home, they tend to do it loudly: 4-0 against Atletico in October 2024, then 4-2 against Madrid. For a tie between two transition-heavy teams, the evidence points toward another open night in Lisbon.
5. Qarabag v Newcastle
Newcastle’s journey to Baku covers 2,529 miles, the longest distance ever travelled by an English team for a Champions League away match. It also lands in the middle of a brutal stretch: from January 28 to February 21, they play eight games, seven of them away from home.
They come into the tie having ended a five-game winless run and a three-game losing streak with a 2-1 win at Tottenham, a result that was just their third away win in the Premier League this season. In the Champions League, they have followed the same pattern: one win away from home, compared to three at St James’ Park. For Eddie Howe, progress in the Champions League would be a timely way to re-establish his credentials.
They are the biggest favourites of any play-off tie, with an 89 per cent probability of progressing according to The Athletic’s Opta-powered projections. For Newcastle, Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes have been involved in 76 per cent of their Champions League goals (13 of 17). Gordon has six goals and two assists, with only Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane and Erling Haaland scoring more, while Barnes has five goals and one assist.
Qarabag have conceded two or more in each of their past six Champions League matches, shipping 21 goals in the league phase, the second-worst record behind only Kairat on 22. Their main threat is Camilo Duran, whose four Champions League goals put him behind only Jackson Martinez (seven for Porto in 2014-15) and Radamel Falcao (five for Monaco in 2016-17) among Colombians in a single edition.
Newcastle have dropped a Premier League-high 19 points from winning positions this season, while only Frankfurt (nine) have dropped more from winning positions in Europe than Qarabag’s eight. Both sides have shown a habit of wobbling once they go ahead, so a lead may not be decisive on its own.