With just nine games remaining for most teams in the Premier League this season, there are plenty of issues still to be resolved.
Arsenal and Manchester City are still battling for the title. At least six teams are still in contention for relegation — and will be hoping to secure safety. But one area of the table in which the battle is truly heating up is in the race for the top four — or, coefficient depending, the top five.
Manchester United, in third, and Liverpool, in sixth, are separated by just three points, with Aston Villa and Chelsea in between the two. While Brentford, in seventh, are only four points behind Chelsea in fifth, realistically it feels as though there are four genuine contenders for the three Champions League places that are unlikely to go to Arsenal or City, with at least one or two to miss out.
Here, The Athletic has posed our club correspondents with a series of questions about the run-in — and whether or not their team will qualify for the Champions League next season.
How has the season gone so far?
Carl Anka, Manchester United reporter: A brief glimpse into sporting madness during the winter has turned into something more optimistic in the spring. Interim head coach Michael Carrick has brought clarity and confidence to a group that was underperforming under Ruben Amorim.
Manchester United’s form and performances have improved since Carrick took over (George Wood/Getty Images)
Jacob Tanswell, Aston Villa reporter: It has been an oddly wild season for Villa. It started terribly, but form improved after September into 11 straight wins across all competitions. Fortune is rolling back to how they started, with Villa enduring a tricky patch. The mood is somewhat gloomy.
Andy Jones, Liverpool reporter: After winning the Premier League last season and then adding £450million worth of talent in the summer, this campaign has been a huge disappointment. There have been a plethora of issues that largely remain unresolved, and it has been a case of one step forward, two steps back all season.
Cerys Jones, Chelsea reporter: Inconsistently. Brief hope of a title challenge died down after a poor December, and deteriorating relations behind the scenes led to Liam Rosenior replacing Enzo Maresca in the dugout at the beginning of the year. Rosenior has made a solid start with 10 wins in 16 games, but the same issues that have dogged Chelsea all season continue.
Will your team be optimistic about the run-in?
Carl Anka: A 2-1 defeat to Newcastle ended the honeymoon period for Carrick, but the team still has positive momentum behind it. United are blessed with attacking firepower and have more time to prepare between matches compared to their rivals.
Jacob Tanswell: There is definite anxiety. Since Everton fractured Villa’s home dominance in January, Unai Emery’s side have lost to Brentford, Wolves and Chelsea and dropped points elsewhere. Optimism is low.
Andy Jones: Had you asked me before Liverpool’s dreadful defeat to Wolves, optimism was building, but Slot’s side continue to find a way to be the masters of their own downfall. It’s impossible to know what Liverpool you are going to get from game to game, and after defeats to Wolves and Galatasaray, doubt has crept back in.
Cerys Jones: The mood fluctuates wildly from game to game. Chelsea showed with the 4-1 win at Aston Villa that they are capable of performing at the level needed for a top-five finish, but against Burnley, Leeds United, and in Paris on Wednesday, they demonstrated how much their individual errors can cost them.
Do they have any distractions outside of the Premier League?
Carl Anka: Nope. United were knocked out at the earliest stage of the domestic cups, rendering this the shortest campaign in terms of games since 1914-15. Any distractions in their remaining nine matches will come from off-field news/drama/media hearsay rather than on-field activities.
Jacob Tanswell: Emery’s quest for a fifth Europa League title and a first with Villa. Villa are fighting fully across both league and European fronts, so managing a tricky knockout path with domestic commitments will be challenging.
Andy Jones: Liverpool need to overturn a one-goal deficit in the second leg of their Champions League last-16 tie against Galatasaray to remain in that competition. They also face a tough FA Cup quarter-final away at Manchester City, so it’s unclear how long there will still be distractions from the league. The head coach and players have made it clear that they still believe it can be a special season, and winning a trophy would help that, particularly if it is the Champions League. Managing all three will be tough given the size of the squad available to Slot.
Cerys Jones: Unless they can overturn a 5-2 deficit to progress past Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League, that distraction will be gone by the end of next week. The only other competition they remain in is the FA Cup, and a maximum of three more games — the first of which is against Port Vale — should not be too much of a distraction from the league.
How important is Champions League qualification to the manager’s future?
Carl Anka: Carrick has played down any talk of him taking the managerial position permanently. But if he were to get the team within the top five, he would improve his interview chances over the summer.
Jacob Tanswell: Potentially significant. The Champions League is crucial to Villa fending off various financial sanctions and to their transfer plans, which would be greatly affected by missing out. Another summer of heavy limitations would hinder Emery’s desire to enhance his team, so the question would be whether he would be willing to endure further constraints.
Andy Jones: It could be the defining factor. Pressure has been mounting on Slot from the fanbase all season, with a lack of clear progress being made on the pitch. The club’s hierarchy has continued to back him, but missing out on Europe’s top competition would give them a decision to make, as that is the bare minimum requirement.
Slot has had a difficult second season after winning the Premier League (Yasin Akgul/AFP via Getty Images)
Cerys Jones: Rosenior should be safe either way. He only joined in January on a six-year deal, and Chelsea’s higher-ups clearly see him as their man to lead the team long term. Champions League qualification would certainly help instil the same confidence in fans, though.
How important is the Champions League money to the club?
Carl Anka: In February 2025, club CEO Omar Berrada informed staff that the costs and savings associated with United’s most recent job cuts were calculated based on Europa League involvement for the next four years. UEFA’s total Champions League prize pot for 2024-25 was £2.04billion ($2.6bn) compared to the total £466.8m ($594.52m) available in last season’s Europa League. A club of the size and ambition of Manchester United requires near-constant involvement in Europe’s top competition to operate at their intended scale.
Jacob Tanswell: Over half of Villa’s revenue in the 2024-25 campaign came through the Champions League. Going without it last season caused a £70million hole in the accounts. Villa rely on its revenue to push their limits, so going another year on the outside will mean player sales, budget cuts and very, very close shaves with financial sanctions.
Andy Jones: A look at the club’s last two sets of accounts tells the story of its importance. In 2023-24, they recorded a pre-tax £57million loss, which coincided with a season in the Europa League. In the latest set of accounts for 2024-25, they made a post-tax £8million profit, bringing in a record revenue of £703million, boosted by their return to the Champions League. With more work needed on the squad this summer, losing out would impact transfer plans.
Cerys Jones: Chelsea’s 2024-25 accounts are not out until the end of the month, but we know they are typically behind other ‘big six’ teams in terms of matchday and commercial income, which somewhat increases the importance to them of income streams like broadcast revenues from participating in the Champions League. The huge amounts Chelsea make from player sales help make up for deficits in other areas, but generating more revenue from prize money would help reduce pre-player sale losses that have regularly topped £200m.
Where do you predict they will finish?
Carl Anka: The funniest scenario sees Chelsea, United and Liverpool finish in the Champions League places, while Unai Emery reactivates his old magic to steer Aston Villa to a Europa League triumph. Everyone’s a winner. My genuine answer is that United finish fourth.
Jacob Tanswell: Emery’s tenure so far suggests, sooner or later, he will solve Villa’s creaking issues. They have shown a propensity to put runs of form together. The likelihood is that it will duly arrive, particularly with captain John McGinn and Youri Tielemans returning. My prediction is fifth.
Andy Jones: Fifth. Liverpool’s flaws continue to rear their heads, which makes me think that they’ll be fighting for that final spot, should the Premier League secure the fifth qualification spot. It’s become almost impossible to trust this team, so the only certainty is that the run-in will be a rollercoaster.
Cerys Jones: Well, at least two of us are definitely wrong, because I would put Chelsea fifth as well. I think they have the quality to stay in the top five, but they also have a difficult run-in — including facing Liverpool and Manchester United — which means it will go down to the wire.
Who will be the key player between now and the end of the season?
Carl Anka: It’s Bruno Fernandes. You don’t have to spend too much time on social media before you find someone bemoaning the lack of creativity in the modern game, but if you’re someone who laments the death of the No 10, then try to put your club allegiances to one side and give Fernandes a watch.
Jacob Tanswell: Morgan Rogers. It is extraordinary that Villa have gone for so long with one regularly effective attacker. Villa are overreliant on Rogers; his goals have been responsible for 12 points. Opponents are aware of this, crowding space and stopping his ball-carrying strengths, so getting the England international to perform at his best is vital.
Andy Jones: Florian Wirtz. Before the minor back injury he picked up against Nottingham Forest in the warm-up last month, he had found his groove and established himself as the heart of Liverpool’s attack. If some of those around him continue to underperform, then he will need to step up.
Cerys Jones: Joao Pedro. Chelsea’s self-inflicted pain in defence shows no sign of letting up, which means they need an in-form goalscorer to pick up points in spite of those problems.
What could be the most important factor in qualification?
Carl Anka: Will a lack of cup competitions be a help or a hindrance to Carrick’s men? United, in theory, should benefit from playing only one game a week, with the club’s coaching staff using their additional prep time to further refine tactical sessions and training ground routines. Yet the team can appear rusty when they emerge from a seven-day-plus break to take on a Premier League opponent. The big gaps between games are a double-edged sword.
Jacob Tanswell: McGinn and Tielemans returning and hitting the ground running, in turn solving Villa’s depleted and ponderous midfield issues. They have to find a way to tough out results in big matches, be it in the Europa League or domestically.
Andy Jones: As simple as it sounds: consistency. All four teams will drop points and take points off each other, but who can go on that four-match winning run to give themselves breathing room? Liverpool, ultimately, need their big players to stand up in big moments — and, whisper it quietly, but could this all be leading to Alexander Isak returning from injury to score the crucial goal of Liverpool’s season?
Cerys Jones: Keeping their heads. Chelsea are undermining the good football they are playing with lapses of judgment. Leaders in the squad need to step up and help stamp that out.
Chelsea need leaders to keep the team in check over the rest of the run-in (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
And what feels like the deciding factor behind the team missing out?
Carl Anka: Manchester United look more like Manchester United again. Deadly on the counterattack. Less convincing when they have to break down a deep defence. Injuries to Lisandro Martinez and Patrick Dorgu mean the team have struggled to attack down the left recently, which might see them drop points and make things nervy.
Jacob Tanswell: Midfield injuries abruptly halted Villa’s momentum at the start of the year, which could prove their ultimate undoing. The ripple effect it has had on other positions malfunctioning — including the lack of inspiration in attack — is another possible deciding factor.
Andy Jones: It will be the inability to shake off bad habits. Just when you think Slot’s side are on the right track, they concede from their opponent’s first shot, fail to take their own chances, or concede in added time. Sometimes they do all of those in the same game. The only consistent thing about Liverpool this season has been their inconsistency.
Cerys Jones: If Chelsea miss out on the Champions League places, I doubt it will be because they are outplayed by rivals during the run-in. It is much more likely to be because of conceding some soft goals through a lack of concentration, or shooting themselves in the foot with poor discipline.