Tuesday, March 31

Consumer confidence posts surprise gain in March, but inflation concerns linger amid gas price surge


Consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in March, according to the latest report from The Conference Board, though the report still showed that concerns of higher prices coming down the pike are weighing on American households.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for March rose to 91.8, up from 91 in February and well ahead of the 87.9 reading that was expected by Wall Street economists.

Overall, the index still shows consumer confidence languishing near its lowest levels in a decade.

Read more: What is consumer confidence, and why does it matter?

Consumer confidence rose in March, but remains near lows last seen in 2020 and 2016. (Source: The Conference Board)
Consumer confidence rose in March, but remains near lows last seen in 2020 and 2016. (Source: The Conference Board)

Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said in a release that the report showed “a modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future.”

The report showed inflation expectations for prices one year from now surged in March to north of 6%, reaching a seven-month high.

“Unsurprisingly given the Iran war oil shock, consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025, when US consumers awaited more tariff announcements from the US federal government,” the report said.

“Consequently, the percentage of consumers stating that interest rates over the next 12 months will be higher on net skyrocketed from 34.9% to 42.4%. Expectations for higher stock prices a year from now plunged.”

MIAMI, FLORIDA - MARCH 09: The price per gallon of gas is shown on a sign as a customer gets fuel at a station on March 09, 2026, in Miami, Florida. A barrel of oil passed the $100 mark for the first time in four years since Russia invaded Ukraine. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
The price per gallon of gas is displayed on a sign as a customer fills up at a station on March 9, 2026, in Miami, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images) · Joe Raedle via Getty Images

The readout comes during a month that had one of the largest monthly increases in gas prices on record, as the average price at the pump rose from $2.83 at the beginning of the month to above $4 by Tuesday morning, according to AAA data.

The Conference Board’s report also comes after data from the University of Michigan released last Friday showed consumer sentiment in March fell to its lowest level since December.

Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s report, said the downturn in March was even more striking given the progress that had been seen since last summer. In February, consumer sentiment reached a six-month high.

“Consumers are really going to be reacting not just to the geopolitical shock itself, but really on what’s happening throughout the economy,” Hsu told Yahoo Finance last week.

“If gas prices recover, if we don’t see pass-through onto overall inflation, … then consumer views on this will recover.”

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