Every year, the men’s NCAA Tournament acts as a final exam for NBA Draft prospects. It’s rare to see a prospect truly tank his stock after a bad game in March Madness — after all, it’s a one-game sample. But many prospects have seen their stock skyrocket from massive NCAA Tournament performances. By the end of the event, a player can add about 18 percent of his overall sample of games for the season if his team goes all the way to the Final Four or championship game.
In that vein, there are nine players I’m excited to watch during this tournament who could help themselves. Yes, I decided to write about four of the top-five players in the class here, as I think all those guys could make a great final impression in what is sure to be a contentious race for the No. 1 pick in June. But I also wrote about five potential first-rounders with an awful lot to gain over the next three weeks.
Cameron Boozer, Duke
First-round opponent: Siena | Potential second-round opponent: Ohio State or TCU
Boozer has largely answered every question this season. The 6-foot-9 freshman is going to win the National Player of the Year award while averaging 22.5 points, 10 rebounds and 4.2 assists while shooting 56.5 percent from the field, 40.9 percent from 3 and 77.5 percent from the free-throw line. But if he wants to work his way into the mix for the No. 1 pick ahead of AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson, he’ll need to bolster his reputation as the biggest winner in his class. Boozer won four Florida state high school titles, three Nike EYB grass-roots titles, two gold medals with the United States youth national team, a high school national title, the ACC regular season title and the ACC tournament title.
Boozer is a savant on the court, consistently processing how the defense is playing him and simply beating what it gives him. Sometimes, that’s as a scorer on the interior. Sometimes, it’s as a perimeter player in ball screens or off the catch and drives. Sometimes, it’s as a passer and decision-maker. Boozer’s superpower is his ability to combine that brain and processing ability on the court with his multifaceted, versatile skill set and he’ll get every opportunity to showcase that in the East Region.
The selection committee loaded the region with elite coaches who should devise tremendous game plans for stopping Boozer. No. 4 seed Kansas’ Bill Self has gone 31-6 in the first game of a weekend in NCAA tournaments. No. 5 seed St. John’s Rick Pitino is a master tactician. No. 3 seed Michigan State’s Tom Izzo, No. 7 seed UCLA’s Mick Cronin and No. 2 seed UConn’s Dan Hurley all have track records of success in the NCAA Tournament. You better believe that if Duke gets to the Sweet 16, we’re going to get some incredible opportunities to evaluate Boozer — especially coming off his performance against Virginia in the ACC title game, which again raised questions about how his ground-bound game will translate against NBA-style length.
Darryn Peterson, Kansas
First-round opponent: Cal Baptist | Potential second-round opponents: St. John’s and Northern Iowa
Unsurprisingly, this is the player scouts most want to see following an absolute roller coaster of a season at Kansas that has seen Peterson miss time with a hamstring injury and cramping. The potential No. 1 pick has been quite inefficient in his last nine games, when Kansas has gone 4-5. He’s averaged 18.7 points but shot just 37.8 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3. The good news is that Peterson has played in Kansas’ last nine games, and in 18 of the team’s last 20 games. But it would be good to leave scouts with a positive taste in their mouths after the inconsistency he’s displayed recently.
Scouts and NBA executives have been willing to accept a lot of excuses for Peterson’s performance this year and rely a lot on their prior experience of evaluating him at the high school level, where he was utterly dominant in his year at Prolific Prep. But with how AJ Dybantsa has performed down the stretch, it’s going to become a question of comfort and certainty at the No. 1 slot. If Peterson and Kansas get to the Sweet 16, we’ll likely get a mammoth prospect matchup between him and Boozer that we were denied early this season at the Champions Classic. Peterson would have a chance to finish on a high note in what has undeniably been a strange ride.
AJ Dybantsa, BYU
First-round opponent: NC State or Texas | Potential second-round opponent: Gonzaga or Kennesaw State
Dybantsa has fewer questions to answer than Boozer or Peterson among the scouting community. That’s not to say Dybantsa is perfect, or that he’s universally considered the No. 1 or No. 2 prospect in the class. Rather, it’s just that Dybantsa has been extremely consistent this season in doing what he does. Scouts know about his processing information and passing ability, if they still want to see more impact as an off-ball defender. He led the country in scoring this season at 25.9 points per game, including a monstrous 28.4 points over his last 16 contests while shooting 48.6 percent from the field, 36.4 percent from 3 and 76.8 percent from the line, getting there nine times per game. He’s also done this while averaging 4.1 assists per game in that run.
However, BYU has gone 4-5 since All-Big 12 wing Richie Saunders tore his ACL. The No. 6 seed Cougars could still make the second weekend. All three potential first-weekend opponents present enticing matchups for Dybantsa. Texas and NC State have been abject messes on defense this year, and while Gonzaga has some wing athletes to throw at Dybantsa like Tyon Grant-Foster, Jalen Warley and Emmanuel Innocenti, the Zags’ interior defense isn’t a monster. It wouldn’t stun me if we look up and see Dybantsa drop 30-plus in a couple of games this weekend.
Darius Acuff Jr., Arkansas
First-round opponent: Hawaii | Potential second-round opponent: Wisconsin or High Point
Speaking of a player who has answered every question imaginable, Acuff has done that and likely earned first-team All-America honors. His close to the season is one of the most incredible that I’ve seen from a freshman in the decade that I’ve been covering college basketball. Over his last 14 games, Acuff has averaged 27.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 6.9 assists versus only two turnovers while shooting 49 percent from the field, 47.4 percent from 3 and 80 percent from the line. The ridiculous run carried Arkansas to the SEC tournament championship.
Offensively, Acuff has nothing left to prove. He’s shot the ball at an elite level, he’s getting by defenders despite not being an elite athlete, he’s improved dramatically as a passer and he generally has made incredible decisions to keep Arkansas’ offense in flow. If there’s one area that Acuff could build upon, it would be on the defensive end. He’s pretty bad there right now and will enter the NBA next season as one of the worst defenders in the league. If I were advising Acuff in his pre-draft prep, I would focus him on understanding what went wrong on defense this year and finding a way to convince NBA teams that he can fix that part of his game.
Even with the significant defensive questions, Acuff is a big tournament run away from putting himself in the mix with the top-four players — Peterson, Boozer, Dybantsa and North Carolina’s injured forward Caleb Wilson. I get asked occasionally by an NBA scout why Acuff can’t go in the top four, but those tend to be few and far between. NBA executives are impressed by his game and want to buy into him. I have him at No. 5 on my board, even though I am among the most averse evaluators you will find about selecting smaller guards because of the limitations they put on an NBA defense. But Acuff has just been that good on offense.
UConn’s Braylon Mullins might be the draft prospect with the most to gain in the NCAA Tournament. (Brad Penner / Imagn Images)
Braylon Mullins, Connecticut
First-round opponent: Furman; Potential second-round opponent: UCLA or UCF
No player has more room to help himself during the tournament than Mullins. Connecticut got a very favorable draw at the bottom of the East Region. UCLA is dealing with injuries to its two best players, Donovan Dent and Tyler Bilodeau. UCF is ranked outside of the top 50 in KenPom and doesn’t do many of the things that have caused issues for UConn this season — mainly interior scoring. Louisville has been very up-and-down as the No. 6 seed, and Michigan State is similar to UConn in that it goes through offensive droughts in the half court. I would trust Hurley and what I consider to be the best staff in the country to problem-solve for a one-game, must-win matchup and get through, as long as Silas DeMary Jr. is healthy enough to play.
But because of the Huskies’ offensive droughts, Mullins will be the key to stopping the half-court issues. When Mullins is rolling, few shooters in the country can take over games as he can. His lightning-quick release and ability to fly off of movement and fire have brought him into the NBA Draft conversation. Scouts typically rank him somewhere in the No. 12 to 25 range. If he leaves UConn, he’ll go somewhere in the first round. However, there’s a big difference between being a potential lottery pick and more of a potential late first-rounder, when the other option is millions in NIL money to return to school.
Mullins hasn’t helped himself much to close the year. Over his last seven games, he’s averaging 10.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, shooting 38 percent from the field and 23.4 percent from 3. He could simply be due for a barrage of 3s to fall over the next two weeks. But Mullins also has issues dealing with strength and stronger opponents. And after a terrific run before this recent slump, when he averaged 15 points over 11 games, it’s clear that teams prioritized bumping him and frustrating him.
A big tournament for Mullins could be the difference between him getting locked into a 2026 lottery spot or entering the 2027 draft. And it’ll almost certainly be the difference between UConn getting upset early or going on a deep run.
Chris Cenac Jr., Houston
First-round opponent: Idaho | Potential second-round opponent: Saint Mary’s or Texas A&M
Cenac probably has the second-most to gain in the tournament behind Mullins. There is no more polarizing player for NBA scouts among first-round prospects. Some see the 6-11 Cenac as a back-half-of-the-lottery option because of his athletic tools, burgeoning perimeter game and the way that he’s embraced playing for Kelvin Sampson while rebounding the basketball. There are games that back that up, such as his 17-point, 14-rebound monster against Kansas in the Big 12 tournament when he was arguably the best player on the court. Then, there are games where Cenac looks like he’d be unplayable on an NBA court next season, like in his recent games against Baylor, Oklahoma State and Arizona. I’ve talked to several scouts who think he would be better off returning to school next year.
If you draft Cenac, you’re not taking him to be an impact player next season. He’s a project with room to grow. But is he such a project that he’s going to take three years before becoming valuable to a team? This is an instance of scouts wanting to get eyes on a player as much as possible before having to potentially decide on him this draft. If he has a monster run in him, that would solidify his place in the top 20. If he doesn’t, that will create further questions and put even more pressure on his pre-draft process. What scouts want to see on this final exam is how he processes the game and whether he can show up and make an impact if things go wrong for him.
Nate Ament, Tennessee
First-round opponent: Miami (OH) or SMU | Potential second-round opponent: Virginia or Wright State
Ament is another player who scouts desperately want a final look at in high-level competitive settings, even after many saw him up close again at the SEC tournament. Ament has consistently brought offense to the Volunteers — he averaged 19 points as a 6-foot-10 playmaker in conference play — by getting to the foul line an obscene amount of times. The freshman averaged eight free-throw attempts in SEC play, and in the conference tournament, he got there 12 times in the loss to Vanderbilt and 13 times in the win over Auburn.
However, scouts are split on whether his style of play will work early on in his NBA career if the jumper does not continue to grow. He clearly has touch — he made 40 percent of his 3s on the AAU circuit last summer and hit nearly 80 percent of his foul shots this year. But his mechanics have been wonky this year and have given scouts pause on how long it will take him to actualize that potential. His lack of strength has also been a significant issue as a driver and finisher; he made just 42.7 percent of his field-goal attempts, including a remarkably low 41.9 percent of his attempts at the rim despite his height and length.
A second-round matchup with Virginia would be particularly spicy, as the Cavaliers have a ready-made, physical, on-ball matchup for him in 22-year-old Thijs de Ridder, a 6-foot-9 forward who will eventually get an NBA look. They also have a two-headed rim protection monster in Ugonna Onyenso and Johann Grunloh, both of whom are in the top-10 nationally in block rate. Can Ament score against that kind of NBA-style length and rim protection? It will be a great test for him if the Vols and Virginia get that far.
Mikel Brown Jr., Louisville
First-round opponent: South Florida | Potential second-round opponent: Michigan State or North Dakota State
Scouts continue to struggle with the Brown experience. There are games when he looks like the best guard in the country, like when he dropped 45, 29 and 29 points in three consecutive games against NC State, Baylor and SMU in about one week. Then there are games like the Duke, Notre Dame and Wake Forest contests in January and early February, when he scored a combined 25 points on 30 shots in 97 minutes. It also doesn’t help that Brown has dealt with a back injury throughout the year that held him out of games for over a month in December and January, as well as last week’s ACC tournament.
If he plays in the NCAA Tournament, he’ll get a fun matchup against South Florida that should play into his hands, as the Bulls play an uptempo style under Bryan Hodgson. After that, he’d likely get an extremely difficult matchup against Michigan State. The Spartans have a top-15 defense and a tough guard in Jeremy Fears Jr., who would try to crawl underneath Brown’s skin and force turnovers, an issue that Brown has struggled with this season. We’d potentially get to see Brown in his element for one game and then be forced more out of his comfort zone in the second game. Scouts would be interested in seeing both iterations.
Amari Allen, Alabama
First-round opponent: Hofstra | Potential second-round opponent: Texas Tech or Akron
Scouts got excited about Allen as early as the Players Era event in Las Vegas and identified him as a potential first-round pick, even though the 6-8 freshman was ranked outside of the top 50 in his recruiting class. He’s been in The Athletic’s mock draft as a first-rounder since, and that’s probably still the most likely outcome. However, Allen has not closed the season well. In three of his last four games, he’s gone 1-of-7 against Tennessee, 1-of-7 against Georgia, and 2-of-8 against Mississippi, in addition to not passing the ball and making as many high-level non-scoring plays as we saw him make this year. Allen averaged 13 points, seven rebounds, three assists, a steal and 0.6 blocks in conference play while hitting 39.5 percent from 3 on five attempts per game, forcing his way into the starting lineup.
Allen hurt his ankle in late January in a game against Oklahoma but had seemingly recovered a couple of weeks later with some impressive games. Much like Cenac, it’s not so much about the matchups for Allen and more about getting him back on the right track after a tough finish.
The No. 5 to No. 20 or so range in this draft does not feature as many wings as is normal in a draft class. Given how teams use wings in the NBA, that’s the position they most want for roster flexibility. Players like Allen, Dailyn Swain, Thomas Haugh, Koa Peat and others could help themselves with big NCAA tournaments just because of that positional scarcity on draft night.