Credit rating agency DBRS Morningstar confirmed Greece’s sovereign credit rating at BBB with a stable outlook, reflecting balanced risks to the country’s credit profile.
The agency said the stable outlook reflected its view that risks to Greece’s creditworthiness remained broadly balanced.
According to DBRS, economic and fiscal developments remained favourable last year. The Bank of Greece estimated that real GDP grew by 2.1% in 2025, supported by strong investment activity, increased private consumption and higher tourist arrivals.
The agency noted that fiscal performance benefited not only from favourable cyclical factors but also from structural reforms that improved tax compliance and strengthened public revenues.
Between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2025, Greece’s general government budget recorded a surplus of 2.6% of GDP. Strong fiscal results and robust economic growth led to a further reduction in the country’s still-high public debt ratio.
Gross public debt fell to 149.7% of GDP in September 2025 from 158.6% in September 2024.
Greece’s 2026 budget projected a further decline in the public debt ratio to 138.2% of GDP by the end of 2026. The forecast relied on expectations of continued strong nominal GDP growth, a significant primary surplus and further early repayments of public debt.
DBRS said favourable economic and fiscal conditions were likely to continue in 2026 but warned that economic prospects faced notable downside risks, including escalating geopolitical tensions. The agency noted uncertainty over whether increased hostilities in the Middle East could permanently raise global energy costs.
In the medium term, DBRS said maintaining a clear downward trajectory in the public debt ratio would depend on repeated primary surpluses and Greece’s ability to sustain its recent economic growth momentum, particularly after the gradual withdrawal of subsidies from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility.
The agency added that Greece’s BBB credit rating was supported by improving conditions in the domestic banking sector, the country’s credible policy framework and its membership in the European Union and the eurozone.
However, DBRS said the rating remained constrained by Greece’s still-high public debt ratio, relatively low labour productivity and the small size of its economy, which made it vulnerable to external shocks. External imbalances, such as the country’s persistent current account deficit, also weighed on its credit profile.
