US stock futures stalled on Friday as investors braced for key inflation and growth data, while keeping a watchful eye out for US-Iran tensions, private credit jitters, and a potential Supreme Court tariff decision.
Contracts on the tech-exposed Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) and the S&P 500 (ES=F) moved down roughly 0.2%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) also moved down 0.2%, coming off the end of a three-day winning streak on Thursday.
The market is waiting for readings on December PCE inflation and fourth quarter US economic growth to help adjust expectations for interest-rate cuts this year. Annual core PCE, which strips out food and energy and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, is expected to heat up to 3%.
Also due later, the preliminary GDP report is expected to show that growth cooled in the quarter amid disruptions from the federal shutdown, but still stayed solid at 3%.
At the same time, Wall Street is on alert for stress in the private credit sector, after Blue Owl’s (OBDC, OWL) halt to withdrawals. Fears are the move is a “canary in the coal mine” financial crisis-style moment amid concerns about the sector’s holdings of software stocks threatened by AI. Blue Owl shares continued to fall in premarket after it sold $1.4 billion in private loans, including to the lender’s own insurer.
US-Iran tensions are also in focus, after President Trump said he will decide within 10 days on military strikes unless a nuclear deal is struck. Oil prices retreated, seen as due to relief that a full-on conflict seems off the cards.
Investors are also keyed into whether the Supreme Court will strike down Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on Friday, as a decision is possible. A host of outcomes remains possible, with perhaps the only certainty for investors being that markets will react, regardless of how the decision goes.
Looking at the week so far, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up 0.4%. The Nasdaq (^IXIC) is on track to break a five-week losing streak with a 0.6% gain, while the Dow (^DJI) is down about 0.2% over the same stretch.
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