Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq slide amid inflation worries as Iran war sends oil surging

Another concentration story is hiding beneath the surface of the S&P 500 (^GSPC) — not in a handful of stocks, but in the calendar itself.

Since the low on April 8, 2025, Mondays and Wednesdays have accounted for essentially all of the index’s 1,642-point gain. Monday has contributed 58% of the move, while Wednesday has added 43%. Put them together, and you get just over 100% of the entire advance. That’s a slightly imperfect way to slice it, but the concentration is still striking.

The other three days have mostly canceled each other out. Friday has been positive, contributing 21%, but that has been offset by a roughly flat Tuesday (-3%) and a deeply negative Thursday (-23%).

That Thursday pattern is especially interesting. Thursdays held up reasonably well until late September, then turned sharply lower right around the time software leadership faded and more defensive groups like healthcare and utilities started to take over.

Bottom line: The latest leg of this bull market hasn’t been a steady climb each week. It’s been a rally that’s done almost all its work on two days.

The US stock market moved further into the red on Thursday as oil prices spiked on an escalation in the Middle East and nerves around energy-driven inflation remained hot on Wall Street.

The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) notched the steepest loss at the start of open trading, dropping roughly 1.2%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost roughly 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.7% after a session in the red on Wednesday that saw the blue-chip benchmark hit its lowest close this year.

Brent (BZ=F) crude futures briefly crossed $119 per barrel overnight and remain sticky above $110 after Iran and Israel both targeted critical energy infrastructure throughout the Gulf. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) gained a slighter 2% to trade above $97.

The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) climbed 4 basis points to 4.30%, while the 5-year (^FVX) rose 8 basis points to 3.94%.

Initial jobless claims on Thursday showed that the weekly count of new claims declined to 205,000, with the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index due later Thursday.

Micron (MU) lost roughly 7.3% as investors expressed concern over spending predictions. Alibaba (BABA) lost roughly 10% after reporting a 67% drop in quarterly profit.

Initial jobless claims fell from the previous week, coming in under economists’ predictions for the labor market metric.

Data released by the Labor Department showed that 205,000 people filed for unemployment benefits in the week ended March 14, below economists’ expectations of 215,000 initial claims and the previous week’s count of 213,000.

Continuing claims for the week ended March 7 were 1.86 million, above both consensus estimates of 1.85 million and the previous week’s 1.85 million.

This week’s jobless claims come after the Labor Department’s February jobs report, published March 6, showed that the US lost 92,000 jobs for the month, far below estimates of 55,000 jobs added. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve voted to hold rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% and kept predictions steady for one more cut this year and one in 2027.

European natural gas futures exploded in early Monday trading, surging by more than 17% after Israel struck the South Pars gas field and QatarEnergy reported “extensive damage” from Iranian strikes at its Ras Laffan liquified natural gas (LNG) export complex, the world’s largest.

Over the past 24 hours, Middle Eastern energy infrastructure has come increasingly under fire, marking a new height of escalation in the war in Iran, starting on Wednesday with strikes by Israel on Iran’s South Pars gas field — the Iranian section of the largest natural gas reserve in the world, which the regime shares with Qatar.

After the South Pars strikes, Iran published a target list of energy infrastructure in the region and ordered evacuations from the sites. Strikes by Iran in the hours since have threatened a refinery in Saudi Arabia, taken two gas facilities in the UAE offline, and struck two refineries in Kuwait.

Earlier in the conflict, initial damage to QatarEnergy’s Las Raffan industrial city pushed Qatar to declare force majeure on shipments from the export complex. The new round of strikes has now made the damage much more extensive.

While Europe gets the majority of its gas supply through pipeline gas from Europe and North Africa, LNG supplies from the Middle East — and especially Qatar — act as flexible cargo that balances the system. Without those deliveries, Europe loses the barrels cushioning its market.

Shares in the miner Newmont (NEM) fell 7% before the bell on Thursday as gold (GC=F), silver (SI=F) and copper (HG=F) futures edged lower.

Five Below (FIVE) stock rose 6% during premarket hours today after reporting higher quarterly profit and sales, citing an increase in customer footfall due to the retailer’s low-priced offerings.

Align Technology Inc. (ALGN) stock rose 6% before the bell on Thursday after activist investor Elliott said it had built a significant stake in the maker of Invisalign teeth-straightening.

Alibaba (BABA) stock slumped 5% during premarket hours on Thursday as the e-commerce giant’s earnings fell while revenue barely grew. Alibaba reported a 2% rise in sales to $41.3 billion for the three months ended December. Net income fell 67%, its worst result since 2024, caused by the company’s heavy spending on promotions.

Bloomberg News reports:

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Micron (MU) stock fell 5% before the bell on Thursday following the chipmaker’s earnings report. The company’s plan to increase capital expenditure left investors feeling nervous. The company’s AI-fueled earnings for the quarter beat analysts’ estimates.

Reuters reports:

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