I picked the exact same bet when Villa met Lille last week, and it won with ease. I’m more than happy to include it to my Europa League predictions for this Thursday as well, because most of my arguments are still valid.
For a start, Lille is a team that heavily relies on defense to win games. They haven’t conceded more than once in the same game since January, but scoring has been an issue as well.
On the other side, we have Aston Villa who have been abysmal recently. The victory in the first leg against Lille was their only win in the last six games in all competitions. The team is dealing with injuries and inconsistency on all fronts, so Unai Emery’s main goal right now is to focus on the basics.
We clearly saw that in the opening game last week when the two sides generated like 0.2 in xG in the first half. It was a tight start, and I expect more of the same. The tie is still in the balance, with no team forced to take big risks early on.
Lille will try to keep it close before the interval and find a winner in the second half. At the same time, Aston Villa will prioritize keeping a clean sheet and keeping their advantage. A goalless first half is certainly possible, so getting +102 for under 1 goal before the interval is a great bet.