The Warriors seem to be on the verge of finally seeing their superstar return to the floor.
On Tuesday night, The Athletic reported Steph Curry had participated in a live five-on-five scrimmage as the latest (and one of the final) steps in his rehab process; the Golden State star has been out for two months with a lingering knee issue. The scrimmage went well enough that Curry now has a target date in mind to return: April 5 against the Rockets.
He spoke to ESPN on the matter that same night and acknowledged his scrimmage went well but cautioned, again, that this injury is “unpredictable.”
“It felt great,” He told Anthony Slater. “I’m checking the boxes. But with this, it’s always unpredictable because I don’t know how the knee will respond because it hasn’t responded well in the past attempts to get to this five-on-five level. I’m right where I need to be for right now and I’m hoping that it continues until the weekend.”
All that makes for something of a mixed bag and the Warriors definitely don’t want to get their hopes up. If Curry hits another roadblock in his recovery, that’ll be curtains for his season. Coach Steve Kerr was willing to admit he will not bring his star back for postseason action without a ramp-up period and the Dubs are running out of games in the regular season to do so. But even the mere hint that he might get back on the court has inspired the organization; Kerr said Curry’s presence lifted everyone’s spirits at practice.
Which makes sense. Curry is the leader of the franchise and, as one of the most electrifying players in modern NBA history, it’s a bummer for everybody involved when he can’t take the court due to injury. The possibility of his return invigorating his teammates lines up.
But it should not inspire hope that the direction the Warriors are headed will change. Not even Curry can alter the fate of this Golden State team.
Curry’s potential return doesn’t change reality for Warriors
The simple fact of the matter? The Warriors are not a good team. They will struggle to make it out of the play-in tournament. And not even Curry’s game-changing talent can change that.
The superstar point guard last played on January 30 and has missed 25 games and counting with his “runner’s knee” injury. Golden State’s record in those 25 games is 9–16 with demoralizing losses to tanking teams such as the Kings and Jazz without many wins against contenders to act as a counterbalance. The team’s statistical profile during this stretch is that of a mediocre-at-best team, not a potential contender treading water until their driving star gets back; the Dubs have scored the fewest points in the NBA since Feb. 1 and their point differential of -136 ranks 21st in the NBA, above the Jazz and below the 76ers. Golden State owns a bottom-10 offensive and defensive rating in that time.
Obviously it’s not really news that the Warriors struggle without Curry, and the injuries that have slammed the roster beyond him merit a mention. Golden State has been particularly snake-bitten in that regard. But for a while there was reason to believe the Dubs could make a bit of noise in the playoffs by teaming Curry up with Kristaps Porziņģis. The Latvian big man’s availability issues are well-documented but his skillset figures to be an ideal match with Curry—if they can get on the court at the same time. Curry got hurt before the Warriors landed Porziņģis so the two haven’t played a single minute together yet. The possibility of that unknown is the biggest driving force behind the idea Curry’s return could make Golden State dangerous.
But, as my colleague Blake Silverman posited weeks ago, it’s too little too late. If Curry manages to return on Sunday that gives him only five games to get up to full speed and acclimate himself to his new starting center—if Porziņģis can suit up at the same time after missing over 50% of his games in a Warriors uniform thus far. And if all that happens, the Dubs are still two full games behind the Trail Blazers for the No. 9 seed, which means they are almost definitely going to have to win two play-in games to qualify for the playoffs at all. If they can to that, a first-round draw with the Thunder awaits as a reward. That’s a lot of ifs to even qualify for the postseason bracket.
It’s not say Curry shouldn’t bother coming back. A star of his caliber can tilt his team’s fortunes by just stepping foot onto the court and we don’t know how many good years the 37-year-old sharpshooter has left. Every Curry game will be appreciated by Warriors fans and basketball fans at large.
But to believe his return will impact the Warriors’ end result is optimistic at best and delusional at worst. There is no saving this Golden State team.
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