A record nine Premier League sides have made it into the knockout phases of European football this season. We now reach a pinch point where the midweek European round-of-16 ties are sandwiched between Fantasy Premier League gameweeks.
With so much at stake and favourable Premier League fixtures for some key sides involved, how should FPL managers prepare?
The impact of the Champions League
Huge midweek fixtures have left some Premier League sides facing an uphill battle in their Champions League second legs.
Liverpool are 1-0 down heading into their home match against Galatasaray, Tottenham Hotspur have a 5-2 deficit to overturn against Atletico Madrid at home, Newcastle United are level with Barcelona at 1-1 for their trip to Camp Nou, Manchester City lost 3-0 at Real Madrid, Chelsea succumbed to a 5-2 defeat at Paris Saint-Germain, and Arsenal rescued a 1-1 draw at Bayer Leverkusen.
This gameweek, there’s more space in the schedule for Liverpool, Spurs and Newcastle. They all played their first-leg games on Tuesday evening before Gameweek 30, and then their second leg comes the following Wednesday.
For Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea, however, their first legs were on Wednesday evening, before second legs on Tuesday. It’s these sides where we anticipate the most rotation, with three fixtures played in seven days, especially since they all have work to do to make the Champions League quarter-finals.
Add into the mix some crunch Premier League games, with Chelsea hosting Newcastle on Saturday, and Liverpool at home against Spurs on Sunday.
Expect rotation, which may include Erling Haaland (£14.6m) when Manchester City travel to 18th-placed West Ham United.
The Norway striker missed City’s Gameweek 28 trip to Leeds United due to what Pep Guardiola described as a “little injury” and was then rested for the FA Cup tie against Newcastle United last weekend, leaving questions over his fitness. He then played 81 minutes against Madrid on Wednesday.
There’s potential that Haaland could see his minutes managed against West Ham, especially with Omar Marmoush (£8.3m) and Antoine Semenyo (£8.3m) providing alternatives, and both displaying solid recent form.
Antoine Semenyo and Omar Marmoush have proved themselves capable in Erling Haaland’s absence (Marc Atkins/Getty Images)
The headaches continue when we consider that City blank in Gameweek 31 due to their involvement in the Carabao Cup final against Arsenal.
If Haaland is a minutes risk, then this could be a time to sell in favour of an in-form forward. Take your pick from Igor Thiago (£7.2m), Joao Pedro (£7.7m) and Hugo Ekitike (£9.1m). Although Joao Pedro played 82 minutes against PSG and Ekitike the full 90 against Galatasaray, both are each side’s main source of goals and are unlikely to be rested.
Many FPL managers are considering dead-ending their team (using your free transfers on short-term hits) leading into Blank Gameweek 31, before playing the Wildcard chip in Gameweek 32, strengthening the sell-Haaland argument.
However, it’s easy to lose sight of the bigger picture: Haaland is the best asset in the game this season, with 22 goals and seven assists from 27 starts.
When Manchester City beat West Ham 3-0 at the Etihad this season, Haaland was involved in all three goals, scoring twice and adding an assist for a 16-point haul, his joint-largest return of the season.
I’m planning to hold Haaland in my team, but I’m unlikely to give him the armband, given the uncertainty over his minutes. I am tripled up on City assets, which makes that decision slightly easier.
What about Europa League and Conference League matches?
The midweek madness extends beyond the Champions League fixtures, with Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace playing consecutive Thursdays in their round-of-16 ties.
They face three fixtures in eight days, and their ties are still in the balance. Aston Villa won 1-0 away to Lille, Nottingham Forest lost 1-0 at home to Midtjylland, and Crystal Palace drew 0-0 with AEK Larnaca. Villa and Palace might be more inclined to go for glory in Europe — the former would secure Champions League qualification via winning the Europa League — while Forest are sure to prioritise Premier League survival over reaching the final in Istanbul.
That said, Villa and Forest are both struggling for form in the Premier League. Villa, who have won just one of their last six, face Manchester United, who have moved ahead of them into third.
It’s a similar story for Forest, who have dropped to 17th and are ahead of West Ham in the relegation spots on goal difference only.
When it comes to captaincy this week, we should look towards players in well-rested sides who face teams with busy European midweeks.
Bruno Fernandes (£10.1m) is the obvious candidate here, with United having a 10-day break before this fixture. He has four consecutive double-digit hauls at Old Trafford under Michael Carrick, racking up two goals and four assists in those games.
No European football = greater rest and chance of minutes for Bruno Fernandes (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
It’s his routes to points that make him so attractive, dominating set pieces, including penalties. He leads the way for key passes and big chances created in this campaign.
Another option worth considering is Brentford striker Thiago, who should be well-rested before playing bottom-of-the-league Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Monday night fixture.
He sits second to Haaland in the Golden Boot race, having found the back of the net on 18 occasions from 29 appearances.