Monday, March 23

Gold prices forecast to surge 30% next year amid flight to safety


Gold prices slipped as investors booked profits and turned cautious ahead of next week’s US Federal Reserve meeting. However, the World Gold Council stated that prices could rise by between 15% and 30% in 2026.

COMEX – Delayed Quote USD

As of 5:25:17 GMT-5. Market open.

Gold futures (GC=F) slipped 0.3% to $4,220.10 per ounce, while spot gold retreated 0.3% to $4,190.13 an ounce at the time of writing.

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“With investors a bit cautious ahead of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, the market is largely pricing that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points… What the market needs now is a fresh trigger for (gold) prices to move higher,” ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari said.

Kumari highlighted ongoing profit-taking and added that any slide toward $4,000 would likely attract new buyers, given gold’s (GC=F) strong fundamental backing.

Meanwhile, the World Gold Council (WGC) said investment demand, particularly via gold (GC=F) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), would remain a key driver, offsetting weakness in other areas such as jewellery or technology.

“The combination of falling yields, elevated geopolitical stress and a pronounced flight-to-safety would create exceptionally strong tailwinds for gold (GC=F), supporting a sharp move higher. Under this scenario gold could surge 15-30% in 2026 from current levels,” the WGC report said.

Oil prices edged higher on Thursday as attacks on Russian oil infrastructure by Ukraine raised the prospect of supply constraints, while stalled peace talks tempered hopes of a swift return of Russian crude to global markets. Gains were limited, however, amid ongoing concerns over weak fundamentals.

NY Mercantile – Delayed Quote USD

As of 5:25:30 GMT-5. Market open.

BZ=F CL=F

Brent crude (BZ=F) futures rose 0.3% to $62.85 per barrel at the time of writing, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (CL=F) futures climbed 0.4% to $59.16 a barrel.

Ukraine targeted the Druzhba pipeline in Russia’s central Tambov region on Wednesday, according to a Ukrainian military intelligence source. The strike marked the fifth attack on the pipeline, which transports Russian oil (BZ=F, CL=F) to Hungary and Slovakia. Both the pipeline operator and Hungary’s oil and gas company later said that supplies were continuing as normal.

“Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refining infrastructure has shifted into a more sustained and strategically coordinated phase,” consultancy Kpler said in a research note. The strikes now hit refineries in repeated cycles, preventing key assets from stabilising.

Read more: Gold rally rubs off on silver

Kpler added that Russian refining throughput fell to around 5 million barrels per day between September and November, a decline of 335,000 bpd year-on-year, with gasoline output hardest hit and gasoil production also materially weaker.

Market sentiment was also influenced by the lack of progress in peace talks. Representatives of US president Donald Trump met with the Kremlin but emerged with no concrete breakthroughs on ending the conflict. Trump said it remained unclear what would happen next.

Analysts also cited softening fundamentals. Fitch Ratings on Thursday lowered its oil (BZ=F, CL=F) price assumptions for 2025–2027, reflecting expectations of oversupply and production growth that will outpace demand.

Sterling remained weaker on Thursday after posting its strongest day since April, though it continues to trade comfortably above $1.33.

CCY – Delayed Quote USD

As of 10:34:57 GMT. Market open.

GBPUSD=X GBPEUR=X

Sterling was up muted against the dollar, at $1.3342, and 0.1% lower versus the euro, trading at €1.1422.

The US dollar index (DX-Y.NYB), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was flat at 98.83.

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The GBP/USD pair retreated from a near two-month high amid renewed demand for the US dollar, though expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week may limit any further losses.

Traders are looking ahead to the US weekly initial jobless claims report later on Thursday for additional market cues. According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors are currently pricing in an 89% probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut next week, with a total of 89 basis points of easing expected by the end of 2025.

In equities, the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was underperforming against peers, trading flat at 9,691 points. For more details on market movements, check our live coverage here.

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