Friday, February 20

Gold prices rise as investors eye US-Iran tensions


Gold prices rose on Friday morning, as tensions between the US and Iran fuelled demand for safe haven assets.

Gold futures (GC=F) were up 0.7%% to $5,031.90 per ounce at the time of writing, while spot gold climbed 0.5% to $5,018.82 an ounce.

US president Donald Trump said on Thursday that Iran must make a deal over its nuclear program, or warned that “bad things” would happen, and suggested a deadline of 10 to 15 days for reaching an agreement.

Read more: Markets gain after positive retail sales data and record budget surplus

ING head of commodities strategy Warren Patterson and commodities strategist Ewa Manthey said: “Markets remain sensitive to US-Iran talks, with lingering uncertainty helping to keep gold well-supported near record levels.”

“The underlying outlook for gold remains constructive,” they said. “Geopolitical risks, expectations of lower interest rates later this year, and continued investor and central‑bank demand are underpinning prices.”

“While volatility is likely to stay elevated around geopolitical headlines, risks remain skewed to the upside, even if gains from here are likely to be more measured than the sharp rally seen previously” Patterson and Manthey added.

COMEX – Delayed Quote USD

5,050.90 +53.50 (+1.07%)

As of 4:37:15 GMT-5. Market open.

Oil prices were steady on Friday morning, though Brent crude remained at its highest point since July, after prices spiked in the previous session amid rising tensions between the US and Iran.

Brent crude (BZ=F) futures were little changed at $71.68 per barrel at the time of writing, while West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) stood at $66.41 a barrel.

ING’s Patterson and Manthey said: “The heightened uncertainty that the market faces over the next two weeks suggests that oil prices are likely to continue to price in a large risk premium.”

Read more: Stocks that are trending today

“US oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) yesterday would have only provided further support to the oil market, with a bullish release,” they said.

They pointed out that US crude inventories fell by a little more than 9 million barrels over the past week, with exports jumping by 851,000 barrels per day week-on-week, while imports declined by 281,000 barrels a day week-on-week.

“Meanwhile, refined products also saw inventory declines, with gasoline and distillate stocks falling 3.21 million barrels and 4.57 million barrels, respectively,” Patterson and Manthey added.

The pound edged 0.1% lower against the dollar (GBPUSD=X) on Friday morning, to trade at $1.3450 at the time of writing, as investors digested the latest economic data out of the UK.

Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday showed that the UK recorded a budget surplus of £30.4bn in January, which was ahead of consensus estimates of £23.8bn and the highest of any month since records began.

CCY – Delayed Quote USD

1.3473 +0.0004 (+0.03%)

As of 9:46:28 GMT. Market open.

Meanwhile, separate ONS data also released on Friday, showed that UK retails sales rose 1.8% in January month-on-month, which was also well ahead of consensus estimates of 0.2% growth.

Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said: “The big reduction in public borrowing and surge in retail sales in January support other evidence that the economy started the year looking a lot healthier and will give the chancellor something positive to point to in her fiscal statement on 3 March.”

Read more: UK records largest ever budget surplus in boost for Reeves ahead of spring forecast

“Overall, it’s clear that the economy has strengthened since the end of last year,” he said. “But the lingering drag from last year’s hikes in taxes for business will probably prevent it from growing by much more than 1.0% this year. The economy is therefore unlikely to significantly ease the political pressure on the Chancellor and PM.”

In other currency moves, the pound was little changed against the euro (GBPEUR=X), trading at €1.1437 at the time of writing.

More broadly, the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was up 0.3% at 10,661 points on Friday morning. For more details on market movements check our live coverage here.

CCY – Delayed Quote USD

1.1445 +0.0010 (+0.09%)

As of 9:46:28 GMT. Market open.

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