Greece, like the rest of Europe, may face new refugee arrivals from Iran and neighboring countries, depending on how long military operations in Iran and the wider Middle East continue, officials and analysts say.
Concern is mounting within the Greek government, as the consequences are expected to extend beyond the apparent economic impact and are difficult to assess or predict. Authorities are also weighing the possibility of radicalization among Muslim groups in Greece, either through the activation of terrorist networks from Iran or through religious reactions.
In October 2024, the Shiite Muslim community of Greece organized a memorial event for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in September in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut.
“If the operations in the Middle East evolve into a war of Islam against the West, the consequences will be terrifying,” said Dimitris Kourkoulas, a former deputy foreign minister and European Union ambassador to Lebanon from 1997 to 2001.
Iranian citizens have already crossed into Turkey, and growing numbers of people are moving closer to the borders. Turkish authorities have expressed their intention “to take measures,” as the prospect of a new refugee wave has sparked domestic reactions. Greek Migration Minister Thanos Plevris announced that monitoring of Iranians seeking asylum “will be expanded,” without providing further details. The examination of asylum applications by Iranians has been temporarily frozen due to the unpredictable situation in Iran. The ministry clarified, however, that Iranian citizens retain the right to apply for asylum.
In 2025, 280 people were granted refugee status in Greece and three received subsidiary protection, according to Migration Ministry data. Another 222 applications were rejected. Over the past decade, an estimated 5,000 Iranians have been granted asylum in Greece, while Germany remains the primary European destination. A significant proportion are women seeking protection from conditions in Iran.
A June report by the European Union Agency for Asylum warned that “even partial destabilization of Iran, a country with a population of 90 million, could cause refugee flows of unprecedented magnitude to Europe. Displacement of 10% of the population could bring the highest number of refugees to Europe.” Kourkoulas said population movements are certain. “We are still at the beginning,” he said.
At the same time, Iranians in Greece declare themselves happy about the developments; most opponents of the regime haven’t even had the ability to visit their country for years.