Greece is set to face increasingly frequent and prolonged heatwaves until the end of the century, according to a new analysis by climate experts at Reinders Corporation.
The research ranks the country as the seventh most vulnerable in Europe to extreme heat, underscoring the growing impact of climate change on Southern Europe.
Prolonged heat and high temperatures
The study, which analyzed climate-modeling data for all European nations, projects that Greece will experience significant climatic shifts in the coming decades.
Frequency and Duration: By 2100, Greece is estimated to face an average of two major heatwaves each year. Crucially, each event is projected to last around 20 days, giving Greece the second-longest projected heatwave duration among the nations studied.
Temperature Intensity: The mean temperature during these prolonged heatwaves is expected to reach a high of 36.92C (98.5F).
Vulnerability Score: Greece received a vulnerability score of 58.38, placing it behind other highly impacted nations like Turkey and several Eastern European countries.
Intensity vs. duration of heatwaves
The Reinders Corporation analysis combined factors like frequency, cumulative duration, and average temperature into a single vulnerability score. While Greece experiences some of the longest heatwave durations, its overall ranking is moderated by slightly lower temperature intensity compared to projections for other regions.
“The seventh-place ranking offers important insight into Greece’s heatwave vulnerability,” said Gerrit Jan Reinders, CEO and climate-data specialist.
“Despite having the second-longest heatwave duration, Greece’s intensity is lower than what we expect in Eastern Europe and Russia.”
The study highlighted that the Eastern European nations of Romania, Moldova, and Bulgaria unexpectedly ranked within the top five, demonstrating that severity is a result of the combined effect of multiple factors, not just temperature alone.
As a key Mediterranean nation heavily reliant on tourism and agriculture, the projected frequency and duration of heatwaves pose significant environmental, economic, and public-health challenges for Greece throughout the 21st century.
The findings reinforce the scientific consensus that the Mediterranean region is a “climate change hot spot,” requiring Greece to accelerate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with rising risks of heat stress, drought, and wildfires.
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